| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 12d | Yes | 3,320 | 90¢ → 99¢ | $3,280 | +$283 +9.4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 1,395 | 74¢ → 85¢ | $1,179 | +$141 +14% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 1,200 | 84¢ → 98¢ | $1,173 | +$165 +16% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 1,150 | 89¢ → 94¢ | $1,075 | +$57 +5.6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 1,500 | 66¢ → 72¢ | $1,073 | +$83 +8.3% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 1,100 | 91¢ → 97¢ | $1,065 | +$68 +6.8% |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 1,075 | 93¢ → 98¢ | $1,055 | +$55 +5.5% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 1,100 | 92¢ → 94¢ | $1,029 | +$17 +1.6% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 1,025 | 83¢ → 92¢ | $947 | +$96 +11% |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 946 | 80¢ → 99¢ | $935 | +$174 +23% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 1,625 | 47¢ → 56¢ | $918 | +$147 +19% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 1,000 | 62¢ → 86¢ | $855 | +$232 +37% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 900 | 82¢ → 94¢ | $841 | +$107 +15% |
| Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Ends in 69d | No | 1,000 | 82¢ → 76¢ | $760 | −$61 −7.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 867 | 80¢ → 86¢ | $741 | +$50 +7.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 800 | 22¢ → 89¢ | $708 | +$532 +302% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends ended | Yes | 600 | 87¢ → 98¢ | $590 | +$68 +13% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 39d | Yes | 2,277 | 23¢ → 25¢ | $569 | +$56 +11% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 655 | 79¢ → 87¢ | $567 | +$49 +9.5% |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 1,000 | 32¢ → 56¢ | $564 | +$244 +76% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 925 | 54¢ → 60¢ | $550 | +$51 +10% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 574 | 65¢ → 93¢ | $531 | +$155 +41% |
| Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 770 | 75¢ → 68¢ | $524 | −$54 −9.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 559 | 85¢ → 93¢ | $517 | +$42 +8.9% |
| Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?Ends in 160d | No | 546 | 75¢ → 89¢ | $483 | +$75 +18% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 580 | 69¢ → 78¢ | $450 | +$49 +12% |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 650 | 70¢ → 67¢ | $436 | −$20 −4.3% |
| Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 410 | 85¢ → 95¢ | $391 | +$42 +12% |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 452 | 54¢ → 84¢ | $377 | +$133 +55% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 498 | 78¢ → 76¢ | $376 | −$11 −2.8% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 797 | 75¢ → 47¢ | $371 | −$227 −38% |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Ends in 3d | No | 434 | 70¢ → 85¢ | $369 | +$66 +22% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 12d | No | 372 | 99¢ → 99¢ | $369 | +$1 +0.4% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?Ends in 15h | Yes | 522 | 60¢ → 71¢ | $368 | +$57 +18% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 510 | 75¢ → 71¢ | $360 | −$23 −6.0% |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 360 | 85¢ → 97¢ | $349 | +$43 +14% |
| Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Ends in 12d | No | 513 | 65¢ → 68¢ | $349 | +$15 +4.6% |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 5d | No | 375 | 84¢ → 93¢ | $347 | +$32 +10% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 5d | Yes | 700 | 15¢ → 49¢ | $341 | +$235 +222% |
| SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 356 | 60¢ → 94¢ | $333 | +$118 +55% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 375 | 80¢ → 87¢ | $324 | +$24 +8.1% |
| Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Ends in 12d | Yes | 450 | 63¢ → 72¢ | $324 | +$41 +15% |
| Meta matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 322 | 76¢ → 97¢ | $312 | +$67 +28% |
| Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 1,000 | 40¢ → 29¢ | $290 | −$112 −28% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Ends in 38d | Yes | 600 | 65¢ → 48¢ | $288 | −$102 −26% |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 329 | 69¢ → 87¢ | $286 | +$59 +26% |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 301 | 53¢ → 91¢ | $272 | +$113 +71% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 400 | 41¢ → 66¢ | $264 | +$100 +61% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 452 | 60¢ → 57¢ | $260 | −$11 −4.2% |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 12,000 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $246 | +$174 +242% |
| Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 250 | 90¢ → 98¢ | $244 | +$19 +8.6% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 1,000 | 25¢ → 24¢ | $235 | −$15 −6.0% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 38d | No | 1,080 | 21¢ → 22¢ | $232 | +$7 +3.3% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 610 | 37¢ → 34¢ | $204 | −$21 −9.5% |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 200 | 87¢ → 96¢ | $193 | +$19 +11% |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 1,000 | 19¢ → 19¢ | $185 | −$5 −2.6% |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 7,200 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $176 | +$104 +145% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 1,750 | 15¢ → 10¢ | $166 | −$101 −38% |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 600 | 38¢ → 26¢ | $153 | −$75 −33% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 1,000 | 25¢ → 15¢ | $153 | −$101 −40% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 5d | Yes | 975 | 12¢ → 16¢ | $151 | +$34 +29% |
| Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Ends in 12d | No | 157 | 58¢ → 87¢ | $137 | +$46 +50% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 153 | 92¢ → 89¢ | $136 | −$5 −3.3% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 392 | 54¢ → 35¢ | $135 | −$77 −36% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 439 | 51¢ → 31¢ | $134 | −$90 −40% |
| Meta announces a training pause by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 140 | 75¢ → 93¢ | $130 | +$25 +24% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 156 | 80¢ → 82¢ | $128 | +$3 +2.5% |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 159 | 68¢ → 81¢ | $128 | +$20 +19% |
| Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 900 | 22¢ → 14¢ | $121 | −$76 −39% |
| Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 175 | 67¢ → 70¢ | $121 | +$5 +4.4% |
| Amazon announces a training pause by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 120 | 81¢ → 98¢ | $117 | +$20 +21% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 3,600 | 3¢ → 3¢ | $117 | +$16 +16% |
| Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Ends in 3d | No | 120 | 91¢ → 97¢ | $117 | +$7 +6.8% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 2,300 | 4¢ → 5¢ | $115 | +$16 +16% |
| Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 159 | 36¢ → 71¢ | $113 | +$56 +97% |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat?Ends in 12d | Yes | 515 | 45¢ → 21¢ | $108 | −$124 −53% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 2,100 | 5¢ → 5¢ | $108 | +$9 +9.6% |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 39d | No | 110 | 87¢ → 89¢ | $97 | +$2 +1.7% |
| Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 144 | 50¢ → 67¢ | $97 | +$25 +35% |
| Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Ends in 4d | No | 100 | 90¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$6 +6.4% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 4,300 | 2¢ → 2¢ | $90 | −$9 −8.7% |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 84 | 85¢ → 96¢ | $81 | +$9 +13% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 101 | 10¢ → 74¢ | $75 | +$65 +664% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 400 | 48¢ → 18¢ | $70 | −$121 −63% |
| Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 71 | 73¢ → 99¢ | $70 | +$18 +35% |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 10,300 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $36 | −$36 −50% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 5d | Yes | 1,400 | 5¢ → 2¢ | $33 | −$38 −53% |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 9,000 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $32 | −$40 −56% |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 435d | Yes | 82 | 25¢ → 36¢ | $29 | +$9 +42% |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 75 | 28¢ → 30¢ | $23 | +$2 +9.7% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?Ends in 7d | Yes | 33 | 59¢ → 64¢ | $21 | +$1 +7.6% |
| Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?Ends in 3d | No | 20 | 83¢ → 97¢ | $19 | +$3 +17% |
| Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 19 | 85¢ → >99¢ | $19 | +$3 +17% |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 15 | 91¢ → 94¢ | $14 | +$0 +3.5% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 60 | 39¢ → 20¢ | $12 | −$11 −49% |
| Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026?Ends in 160d | Yes | 23 | 11¢ → 38¢ | $9 | +$6 +238% |
| Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 16 | 20¢ → 32¢ | $5 | +$2 +59% |
| Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 5d | Yes | 2,900 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $3 | −$17 −85% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?Ends in 39d | No | 9 | 22¢ → 26¢ | $2 | +$0 +18% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 3 | 68¢ → 85¢ | $2 | +$0 +24% |
