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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson (R) | 57% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 57¢ · 58¢ (1¢) | $4.27K | in 11d |
| Josh Turek (D) | 43% | — | +1 pts | 42¢ · 43¢ (1¢) | $4.83K | in 11d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12h | Heskel25 fills | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes60¢ → 57¢ | $16,318 | −$789 −4.8% | 30 |
| 1d |  nigiri993 fills | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes57¢ | $3,576 | +$31 +0.9% | 30 |
| 1d |  realbengvir | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes44¢ → 43¢ | $2,422 | −$83 −3.4% | 31 |
| 1d | nigiri99 | Josh Turek (D) | BuyNo57¢ | $1,321 | +$12 +0.9% | 30 |
| 1d | dimuto38 | Josh Turek (D) | SellNo55¢ → 57¢ | $2,021 | −$90 −4.5% | — |
| 1d |  mrmoonlight | Josh Turek (D) | SellYes42¢ → 43¢ | $1,167 | −$14 −1.2% | — |
| 2d |  Mr.Kirk | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes58¢ → 57¢ | $2,884 | −$9 −0.3% | 30 |
| 2d |  mrworldwide | Josh Turek (D) | SellNo56¢ → 57¢ | $3,376 | −$74 −2.2% | — |
| 3d |  BigRabbit | Ashley Hinson (R) | SellNo42¢ → 43¢ | $4,200 | −$50 −1.2% | — |
| 3d | alex200112 fills | Josh Turek (D) | BuyNo58¢ → 57¢ | $2,870 | −$12 −0.4% | 30 |
| 3d | WarriorH2 fills | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes59¢ → 57¢ | $3,331 | −$62 −1.9% | 30 |
| 3d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Josh Turek (D) | SellYes42¢ → 43¢ | $1,260 | −$15 −1.2% | — |
| 5d | dimuto38 | Josh Turek (D) | BuyNo59¢ → 57¢ | $2,136 | −$54 −2.5% | 30 |
| 7d | nigiri99 | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes42¢ → 43¢ | $1,261 | +$15 +1.2% | 30 |
| 9d | mrworldwide | Josh Turek (D) | BuyNo58¢ → 57¢ | $3,480 | −$30 −0.9% | 30 |
| 12d | Heskel24 fills | Josh Turek (D) | BuyNo60¢ → 57¢ | $7,561 | −$317 −4.2% | 30 |
| 13d |  HuntersMethDealer | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes59¢ → 57¢ | $1,180 | −$30 −2.5% | 30 |
| 13d | qrup | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes58¢ → 57¢ | $10,474 | −$90 −0.9% | 30 |
| 14d |  Warren-Buffett | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes44¢ → 43¢ | $2,200 | −$75 −3.4% | 31 |
| 14d | Single-Challenge | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes44¢ → 43¢ | $2,200 | −$75 −3.4% | 31 |
| 14d |  bernardbulletin | Josh Turek (D) | SellYes44¢ → 43¢ | $2,871 | +$98 +3.4% | — |
| 14d | TR422 | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes45¢ → 43¢ | $2,295 | −$128 −5.6% | 31 |
| 15d | bnbaltz | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes45¢ → 43¢ | $1,350 | −$75 −5.6% | 30 |
| 15d | thebug44 | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes45¢ → 43¢ | $3,150 | −$175 −5.6% | 31 |
| 15d | supersmard | Josh Turek (D) | SellYes45¢ → 43¢ | $10,458 | +$581 +5.6% | — |
| 15d | WarriorH5 fills | Josh Turek (D) | BuyNo59¢ → 57¢ | $6,856 | −$137 −2.0% | 30 |
| 16d | HD45 | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyNo44¢ → 43¢ | $2,755 | −$94 −3.4% | 31 |
| 16d | HD45 | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes43¢ | $4,380 | −$51 −1.2% | 32 |
| 21d |  Haradwaith | Josh Turek (D) | SellNo56¢ → 57¢ | $1,109 | −$30 −2.7% | — |
| 21d | mrmoonlight | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes42¢ → 43¢ | $1,167 | +$14 +1.2% | 30 |
| 21d | grinder10112 fills | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyNo42¢ → 43¢ | $2,847 | +$34 +1.2% | 32 |
| 22d |  tunatyler | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes42¢ → 43¢ | $2,100 | +$25 +1.2% | 31 |
| 22d | Fulgurator | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes42¢ → 43¢ | $3,570 | +$43 +1.2% | 32 |
| 22d | l3t0 | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes42¢ → 43¢ | $2,100 | +$25 +1.2% | 31 |
| 23d |  Valen9 | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyNo41¢ → 43¢ | $1,859 | +$68 +3.7% | 31 |
| 23d | anoin123 | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes59¢ → 57¢ | $1,236 | −$31 −2.5% | 30 |
| 25d | lomneivan4 fills | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes57¢ | $15,363 | +$62 +0.4% | 30 |
| 27d | flawfence | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes57¢ | $6,491 | +$57 +0.9% | 30 |
| 27d | flawfence | Josh Turek (D) | BuyNo57¢ | $11,430 | +$100 +0.9% | 30 |
| 27d | pieped | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyNo44¢ → 43¢ | $1,760 | −$60 −3.4% | 31 |
| 28d | flawfence | Ashley Hinson (R) | SellNo44¢ → 43¢ | $1,244 | +$42 +3.4% | — |
| 29d | EmDub9 | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes56¢ → 57¢ | $1,000 | +$27 +2.7% | 29 |
| 29d | RabbitRunning | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes55¢ → 57¢ | $1,200 | +$55 +4.5% | 30 |
| 29d | Vilgefortz | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes54¢ → 57¢ | $2,036 | +$132 +6.5% | 30 |
| 29d | lomneivan3 fills | Josh Turek (D) | BuyNo56¢ → 57¢ | $15,824 | +$359 +2.3% | 30 |
| 30d |  456ythgbvcadscvb | Josh Turek (D) | BuyNo52¢ → 57¢ | $2,437 | +$258 +11% | 30 |
| 30d | purplegatto | Josh Turek (D) | BuyNo51¢ → 57¢ | $1,304 | +$166 +13% | 30 |
| 31d |  nnimrodd3 fills | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyNo44¢ → 43¢ | $3,100 | −$114 −3.7% | 31 |
| 31d | supersmard | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes47¢ → 43¢ | $12,650 | −$1,211 −9.6% | 31 |
| 31d |  mountaindewd | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes47¢ → 43¢ | $1,410 | −$135 −9.6% | 30 |
| 31d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyYes53¢ → 57¢ | $1,060 | +$90 +8.5% | 30 |
| 31d |  fkpa | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes47¢ → 43¢ | $1,050 | −$96 −9.2% | 27 |
| 31d | flawfence3 fills | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes41¢ → 43¢ | $14,760 | +$492 +3.3% | 35 |
| 31d | flawfence3 fills | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyNo41¢ → 43¢ | $4,404 | +$120 +2.7% | 32 |
| 32d | gateway- | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyNo40¢ → 43¢ | $1,901 | +$119 +6.3% | 31 |
| 34d | Heskel23 fills | Josh Turek (D) | SellNo58¢ → 57¢ | $8,646 | +$43 +0.5% | — |
| 34d | Heskel22 fills | Ashley Hinson (R) | SellYes59¢ → 57¢ | $16,017 | +$479 +3.0% | — |
| 37d | BigRabbit2 fills | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes40¢ → 43¢ | $4,099 | +$203 +5.0% | 33 |
| 39d | BigRabbit | Ashley Hinson (R) | BuyNo40¢ → 43¢ | $2,049 | +$128 +6.3% | 31 |
| 42d | SlavaUkraini | Josh Turek (D) | BuyYes38¢ → 43¢ | $3,464 | +$410 +12% | 33 |
bernardbulletin12,572 shares
RememberAmalek10,735 sharesnnimrodd8,117 shares
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e057,659 sharesThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 57¢ for Ashley Hinson (R) means the market gives it about 57%.