| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 11d | Yes | 102 | 60¢ → 68¢ | $69 | +$8 +13% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | Yes | 56 | 45¢ → 92¢ | $51 | +$26 +104% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 58 | 47¢ → 77¢ | $45 | +$17 +62% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 47 | 62¢ → 67¢ | $31 | +$2 +7.3% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | No | 44 | 68¢ → 71¢ | $31 | +$1 +4.1% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 44 | 67¢ → 67¢ | $30 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 34 | 53¢ → 75¢ | $25 | +$8 +42% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 26 | 66¢ → 93¢ | $25 | +$7 +40% |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 30 | 75¢ → 75¢ | $23 | −$0 −0.2% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 24 | 54¢ → 94¢ | $23 | +$10 +75% |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 27 | 74¢ → 75¢ | $20 | +$0 +0.7% |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 30 | 33¢ → 66¢ | $20 | +$10 +98% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 20 | 30¢ → 90¢ | $18 | +$12 +198% |
| Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Ends in 15d | Yes | 21 | 47¢ → 82¢ | $17 | +$7 +74% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 25 | 79¢ → 62¢ | $15 | −$5 −23% |
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Ends ended | Yes | 19 | 54¢ → 84¢ | $15 | +$5 +55% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | Yes | 31 | 46¢ → 50¢ | $15 | +$1 +9.6% |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 1d | No | 20 | 50¢ → 73¢ | $14 | +$4 +45% |
| Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Ends in 1d | Yes | 17 | 59¢ → 86¢ | $14 | +$4 +45% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 21 | 46¢ → 68¢ | $14 | +$5 +47% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 17 | 60¢ → 83¢ | $14 | +$4 +37% |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?Ends in 11d | No | 16 | 64¢ → 88¢ | $14 | +$4 +37% |
| Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 14 | 72¢ → 98¢ | $14 | +$4 +36% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 14 | 69¢ → 94¢ | $14 | +$4 +36% |
| Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 14 | 73¢ → 98¢ | $13 | +$3 +34% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 20 | 50¢ → 67¢ | $13 | +$3 +33% |
| Will the Democrats win Fort Bend County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 14 | 72¢ → 96¢ | $13 | +$3 +33% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 25%-30%?Ends in 11d | No | 14 | 74¢ → 92¢ | $12 | +$2 +24% |
| Will Andris Kulbergs be the next Prime Minister of Latvia?Ends ended | Yes | 13 | 79¢ → 98¢ | $12 | +$2 +24% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 2d | Yes | 14 | 70¢ → 87¢ | $12 | +$2 +24% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 20%-25%?Ends in 11d | No | 13 | 79¢ → 97¢ | $12 | +$2 +22% |
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 13 | 76¢ → 92¢ | $12 | +$2 +20% |
| Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 11d | No | 28 | 36¢ → 44¢ | $12 | +$2 +21% |
| Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?Ends in 14d | Yes | 13 | 78¢ → 95¢ | $12 | +$2 +21% |
| Will Eva Lindberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg?Ends ended | Yes | 13 | 78¢ → 92¢ | $12 | +$2 +19% |
| Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Ends ended | Yes | 17 | 59¢ → 71¢ | $12 | +$2 +19% |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 2d | No | 14 | 73¢ → 87¢ | $12 | +$2 +18% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 17 | 60¢ → 70¢ | $12 | +$2 +16% |
| Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 13 | 75¢ → 86¢ | $12 | +$2 +15% |
| Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Ends in 11d | No | 20 | 29¢ → 57¢ | $12 | +$6 +98% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 14 | 73¢ → 84¢ | $11 | +$1 +14% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 13 | 77¢ → 88¢ | $11 | +$1 +14% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | Yes | 16 | 61¢ → 68¢ | $11 | +$1 +11% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-03 House election by 55% or more?Ends in 11d | No | 13 | 79¢ → 87¢ | $11 | +$1 +10% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 13 | 80¢ → 88¢ | $11 | +$1 +9.4% |
| Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?Ends in 4d | No | 13 | 77¢ → 80¢ | $10 | +$0 +3.9% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?Ends in 6h | No | 10 | 40¢ → >99¢ | $10 | +$6 +149% |
| Will Democrats sweep the Maine Senate and Governor elections?Ends in 11d | Yes | 16 | 64¢ → 63¢ | $10 | −$0 −1.6% |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 10 | 67¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$3 +42% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-12 House election by 30%-35%?Ends in 11d | No | 13 | 75¢ → 70¢ | $9 | −$1 −7.5% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 80¢ → 93¢ | $9 | +$1 +16% |
| Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Ends ended | No | 14 | 72¢ → 67¢ | $9 | −$1 −7.4% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 13 | 79¢ → 72¢ | $9 | −$1 −8.8% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-01 House election by 65%-70%?Ends in 11d | No | 15 | 68¢ → 63¢ | $9 | −$1 −8.0% |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?Ends in 6d | No | 25 | 40¢ → 36¢ | $9 | −$1 −10% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends ended | No | 16 | 64¢ → 57¢ | $9 | −$1 −11% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-07 House election by 12%-15%?Ends in 11d | No | 10 | 79¢ → 86¢ | $9 | +$1 +8.9% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 25 | 40¢ → 34¢ | $8 | −$2 −16% |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 450,000 and 500,000?Ends in 11d | Yes | 24 | 41¢ → 33¢ | $8 | −$2 −21% |
| Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?Ends in 11d | No | 10 | 60¢ → 78¢ | $8 | +$2 +29% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 52¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$2 +45% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election?Ends in 10d | No | 50 | 20¢ → 14¢ | $7 | −$3 −30% |
| Will Ben Dudman win the next Meander Valley mayoral election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 32 | 31¢ → 22¢ | $7 | −$3 −30% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 10 | 63¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$1 +10% |
| Will Brett Whiteley win the next Latrobe mayoral election?Ends in 4d | No | 19 | 23¢ → 35¢ | $7 | +$2 +52% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 44 | 25¢ → 14¢ | $6 | −$5 −47% |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 9 | 55¢ → 62¢ | $6 | +$1 +13% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more?Ends in 11d | No | 10 | 25¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$3 +112% |
| Will Mattias Ottosson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland?Ends ended | Yes | 12 | 66¢ → 45¢ | $5 | −$3 −32% |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 39 | 26¢ → 10¢ | $4 | −$6 −60% |
| Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?Ends in 11d | Yes | 5 | 47¢ → 71¢ | $4 | +$1 +51% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 15 | 64¢ → 24¢ | $3 | −$6 −63% |
| Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 5 | 42¢ → 67¢ | $3 | +$1 +60% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 12 | 64¢ → 29¢ | $3 | −$4 −55% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Arizona Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | No | 14 | 40¢ → 22¢ | $3 | −$3 −45% |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Ends in 4d | Yes | 17 | 60¢ → 18¢ | $3 | −$7 −69% |
| Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-02 House election?Ends in 10d | No | 5 | 80¢ → 59¢ | $3 | −$1 −26% |
| Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-43 House election?Ends in 10d | No | 5 | 79¢ → 59¢ | $3 | −$1 −25% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Ends in 7d | Yes | 53 | 44¢ → 6¢ | $3 | −$21 −87% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 5 | 65¢ → 57¢ | $3 | −$0 −12% |
| Will Rastislav Mochnacký win the 2026 Prešov mayoral election?Ends in 1d | Yes | 36 | 25¢ → 8¢ | $3 | −$6 −69% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | Yes | 32 | 63¢ → 9¢ | $3 | −$17 −86% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 3 | 61¢ → 83¢ | $3 | +$1 +35% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 39 | 36¢ → 7¢ | $3 | −$12 −82% |
| Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 22 | 45¢ → 11¢ | $2 | −$8 −75% |
| Will Mikuláš Bobák win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Ends in 1d | Yes | 20 | 23¢ → 12¢ | $2 | −$2 −50% |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 22 | 46¢ → 10¢ | $2 | −$8 −78% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 31 | 32¢ → 7¢ | $2 | −$8 −80% |
| Will the Democrats win Washoe County in the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 11 | 32¢ → 16¢ | $2 | −$2 −50% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 26 | 49¢ → 6¢ | $2 | −$11 −88% |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Ends in 6h | Yes | 20 | 50¢ → 8¢ | $2 | −$9 −85% |
| Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 4 | 32¢ → 34¢ | $1 | +$0 +6.3% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 2 | 57¢ → 76¢ | $1 | +$0 +32% |
| Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 17 | 58¢ → 6¢ | $1 | −$9 −91% |
| California voter ID referendum passes?Ends in 11d | Yes | 7 | 38¢ → 13¢ | $1 | −$2 −67% |
| Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision?Ends in 4d | Yes | 13 | 21¢ → 7¢ | $1 | −$2 −69% |
| Will Paul Lefebvre win the 2026 Greater Sudbury mayoral election?Ends in 3d | No | 16 | 24¢ → 5¢ | $1 | −$3 −81% |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 12d | Yes | 26 | 39¢ → 3¢ | $1 | −$9 −93% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d | No | 30 | 20¢ → 2¢ | $1 | −$5 −89% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 15 | 39¢ → 4¢ | $1 | −$5 −90% |
