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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92d | December 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $2,035 | +$90 +4.4% | 4 | |
| 115d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,357 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 118d | controls | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,660 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 119d | JamesBonder007 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,005 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 119d | Noname333 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,124 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 119d | thoodr4 fills | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,835 | +$149 +1.2% | 4 |
| 120d | QueenDice | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,321 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 |
| 120d | M2sx92kljs423 fills | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,580 | −$97 −1.7% | — |
| 120d | LJa7io23MCv954j | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 120d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $11,881 | +$378 +3.2% | 4 | |
| 124d | oracleoforanje | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,357 | +$22 +1.6% | 4 |
| 127d | QMG-CORE | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,220 | +$29 +2.4% | 4 |
| 133d | lolomgggty | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | −$42 −3.9% | — |
| 137d | Vvv | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | +$49 +4.1% | 4 |
| 137d | Unlawful-Angora | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,892 | −$108 −5.7% | — |
| 139d | 881112 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,537 | −$79 −5.2% | — |
| 140d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,299 | +$49 +3.7% | 4 |
| 141d | cezarn132 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,512 | −$354 −5.4% | — |
| 143d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,096 | +$58 +5.3% | 4 | |
| 144d | LJa7io23MCv954j | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$59 +5.5% | 4 |
| 145d | Bukaj08892 fills | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$267 +6.7% | 4 |
| 145d | 881112 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,201 | +$132 +11% | 4 |
| 145d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,770 | +$220 +12% | 4 | |
| 147d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,295 | +$5 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 147d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,693 | +$7 +0.4% | 4 | |
| 148d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,238 | +$208 +17% | 4 | |
| 148d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,344 | +$25 +1.8% | 4 | |
| 148d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,153 | +$34 +3.0% | 4 | |
| 148d | kevinlim883 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$1,225 +12% | 4 |
| 148d | Lisbon | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,341 | +$19 +0.8% | 4 |
| 150d | bearbees22 fills | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,399 | +$71 +1.0% | 4 |
| 150d | pikachu6683 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,815 | −$237 −13% | — |
| 151d | MissaoComFlavio | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | −$151 −14% | — |
| 151d | 65765757 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $2,993 | −$405 −14% | — |
| 152d | bear-bees | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,196 | +$46 +1.4% | 4 |
| 152d | M2sx92kljs422 fills | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $4,649 | +$749 +16% | 4 |
| 152d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,760 | +$240 +14% | 4 | |
| 152d | cezarn1322 fills | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $37,310 | +$3,061 +8.2% | 4 |
| 153d | pikachu6683 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $2,112 | +$288 +14% | 4 |
| 153d | MissaoComFlavio | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | +$162 +16% | 4 |
| 153d | simpleman2 fills | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $5,500 | +$853 +16% | 4 |
| 153d | 65765757 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,200 | +$443 +20% | 4 |
| 154d | Rohinverma | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $11,500 | +$653 +5.7% | 4 |
| 154d | geopolitico | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellYes17¢ → 0¢ | $3,130 | +$3,130 +100% | — |
| 154d | cezarn132 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $5,379 | +$1,487 +28% | 4 |
| 154d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | +$549 +39% | 4 |
| 154d | johnnath1222 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,279 | +$427 +33% | 4 |
| 154d | uJyFyD62 fills | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyYes19¢ → 0¢ | $6,465 | −$6,465 −100% | 15 |
| 155d | geopolitico | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyYes24¢ → 0¢ | $3,500 | −$3,500 −100% | 10 |
| 155d | Extravagance3 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyYes20¢ → 0¢ | $1,600 | −$1,600 −100% | 7 |
| 155d | simpleman | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$128 +5.1% | 4 |
| 155d | simpleman | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,418 | −$268 −19% | — |
| 157d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$208 +12% | 4 | |
| 157d | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,386 | +$226 +16% | 4 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 4¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 4%.