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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 14 | 100% | +20 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 21 | 100% | +6 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 12 | 100% | +93 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 13 | 100% | +73 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| August 7 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 11 | 0% | −32 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72d | bonalddrunk | August 12 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,394 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 72d | dry-september | August 14 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,359 | +$126 +9.2% | 21 |
| 72d | dry-september | August 13 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,959 | +$256 +13% | 22 |
| 72d | dry-september | August 12 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$199 +20% | 24 |
| 73d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | August 14 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,044 | +$395 +19% | 23 |
| 73d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | August 14 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$195 +19% | 23 |
| 73d |  Hakei. | August 14 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,362 | +$800 +34% | 22 |
| 73d |  rewardbots | August 12 | BuyNo82¢ → 0¢ | $1,104 | −$1,104 −100% | 23 |
| 73d | Contentious-Dinnerdate | August 11 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,251 | +$180 +5.5% | 21 |
| 74d | KiernanMeister | August 13 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $4,433 | +$1,694 +38% | 25 |
| 77d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | August 7 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,972 | +$28 +1.4% | 20 |
| 77d | jimmyMakeMoney | August 7 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,278 | +$20 +1.5% | 21 |
| 77d |  The-Joker | August 7 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,068 | +$32 +1.5% | 21 |
| 77d |  turtle911 | August 7 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,340 | +$157 +12% | 23 |
| 78d | YHCLAY | August 14 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$64 +6.4% | 20 |
| 79d | rewardbots | August 7 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,846 | +$403 +22% | 23 |
| 79d | rewardbots | August 14 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,650 | +$350 +21% | 20 |
5.btc2,338 shares
Mr.Frog🐸1,793 shares
Lavincey1,000 shares
labistiiia788 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for August 14 means the market gives it about 100%.