| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 1,344 | 14¢ → 97¢ | $1,303 | +$1,111 +578% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 728 | 33¢ → 98¢ | $713 | +$476 +201% |
| Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?Ends in 9d | No | 400 | 92¢ → 99¢ | $396 | +$28 +7.6% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 70d | No | 445 | 56¢ → 86¢ | $383 | +$134 +54% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Ends in 70d | No | 451 | 65¢ → 82¢ | $370 | +$78 +27% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Ends in 70d | No | 762 | 21¢ → 48¢ | $368 | +$211 +135% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Ends in 70d | No | 1,545 | 11¢ → 19¢ | $297 | +$132 +80% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 70d | No | 563 | 65¢ → 50¢ | $282 | −$83 −23% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 70d | No | 311 | 53¢ → 62¢ | $191 | +$28 +17% |
| Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?Ends in 221d | Yes | 1,063 | 9¢ → 16¢ | $174 | +$81 +87% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 70d | No | 216 | 57¢ → 79¢ | $171 | +$47 +38% |
| Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 400 | 37¢ → 37¢ | $148 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?Ends in 39d | No | 658 | 17¢ → 20¢ | $128 | +$14 +12% |
| Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 12d | Yes | 200 | 60¢ → 62¢ | $123 | +$3 +2.7% |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?Ends in 251d | No | 355 | 55¢ → 34¢ | $121 | −$76 −39% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 314 | 18¢ → 33¢ | $102 | +$44 +77% |
| Will "Clayface" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Ends in 3d | Yes | 321 | 15¢ → 26¢ | $83 | +$35 +71% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 13d | Yes | 200 | 39¢ → 41¢ | $81 | +$3 +3.8% |
| Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $2M?Ends in 2d | Yes | 80 | 80¢ → 98¢ | $78 | +$14 +23% |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 37d | Yes | 100 | 64¢ → 63¢ | $63 | −$2 −2.3% |
| Will "Klara and the Sun" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Ends in 3d | No | 61 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $59 | +$2 +3.2% |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 1,000 | 3¢ → 6¢ | $56 | +$22 +64% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?Ends in 24d | Yes | 300 | 25¢ → 18¢ | $54 | −$21 −28% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 150 | 36¢ → 35¢ | $52 | −$2 −4.2% |
| Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 1,500 | 5¢ → 3¢ | $50 | −$24 −33% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?Ends in 435d | No | 2,717 | 5¢ → 2¢ | $46 | −$94 −67% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 71 | 61¢ → 60¢ | $42 | −$1 −2.0% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 255 | 15¢ → 16¢ | $41 | +$2 +4.7% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 500 | 14¢ → 8¢ | $37 | −$32 −46% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 776 | 9¢ → 5¢ | $35 | −$35 −50% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 150 | 36¢ → 22¢ | $34 | −$20 −37% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?Ends in 39d | No | 295 | 20¢ → 11¢ | $32 | −$26 −45% |
| Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in the United States?Ends in 435d | Yes | 482 | 5¢ → 5¢ | $24 | −$0 −2.0% |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 200 | 10¢ → 11¢ | $21 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 100 | 21¢ → 20¢ | $20 | −$2 −9.1% |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 31 | 29¢ → 62¢ | $19 | +$10 +112% |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 100 | 14¢ → 19¢ | $19 | +$5 +36% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Ends in 435d | No | 905 | 6¢ → 2¢ | $17 | −$38 −69% |
| Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 500 | <1¢ → 3¢ | $16 | +$14 +688% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Ends in 435d | No | 450 | 15¢ → 3¢ | $16 | −$51 −77% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 732 | 14¢ → 2¢ | $15 | −$90 −86% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 4,700 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $14 | −$13 −47% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 140 | 31¢ → 9¢ | $13 | −$31 −71% |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 24 | 54¢ → 45¢ | $11 | −$2 −18% |
| Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m?Ends in 2d | Yes | 23 | 55¢ → 43¢ | $10 | −$3 −22% |
| Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24?Ends in 22h | Yes | 150 | 13¢ → 6¢ | $8 | −$11 −58% |
| Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 435d | Yes | 225 | 3¢ → 3¢ | $6 | −$1 −17% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Ends in 9d | Yes | 500 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $6 | −$2 −28% |
| Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 695 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $6 | +$3 +167% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 400 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $5 | −$0 −3.6% |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 120 | 2¢ → 4¢ | $4 | +$1 +44% |
| Will Meta have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 326 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $4 | −$3 −43% |
| Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 491 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $4 | +$2 +109% |
| Will Champi peak as a Very strong typhoon?Ends in 7d | Yes | 336 | 28¢ → 1¢ | $3 | −$90 −97% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 3 | 16¢ → 76¢ | $3 | +$2 +382% |
| Will "Clayface" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Ends in 3d | Yes | 300 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $2 | −$5 −71% |
| Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 50 | 14¢ → 3¢ | $2 | −$5 −75% |
| Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 178 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $1 | +$0 +33% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Ends in 3d | Yes | 1,500 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$2 −75% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 1 | 13¢ → 52¢ | $1 | +$0 +302% |
| Will Ireland participate in Eurovision 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 3 | 3¢ → 4¢ | $0 | +$0 +41% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 86 | 30¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$26 −100% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 200 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 741 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$30 −100% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,771 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$138 −100% |
| Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 200 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 21?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 225 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$23 −100% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,502 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$22 −100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,020 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$94 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 296 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 20 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 132 | 35¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$46 −100% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,012 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$135 −100% |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 400 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by October 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,000 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$110 −100% |
| Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 WinnerSettled - ready to redeem | Team Spirit | 112 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$38 −100% |
| Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$42 −100% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,000 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$64 −100% |
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 521 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$80 −100% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on August 29, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 21¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$21 −100% |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 523 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$41 −100% |
| Will there be 30 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,130 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$33 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 110 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,196 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$19 −100% |
| Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,067 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,059 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$92 −100% |
| Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 418 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$19 −100% |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 696 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy)Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 994 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$41 −100% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 600 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 400 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$93 −100% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 973 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$51 −100% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 300 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$79 −100% |
