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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2026 | 100% | +2 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 11 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| August 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 30, 2026 | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 27 | 0% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| July 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 237d | AnonymousTurtle1233 fills | March 31, 2026 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $10,586 | −$5,263 −50% | — |
| 237d |  testiclepulveriser2 fills | June 30, 2026 | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $2,830 | −$905 −32% | — |
| 237d | alliswell | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,422 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 237d | alliswell | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,479 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 237d |  Cloverince | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,991 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 238d | Vulcan1 | March 31, 2026 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | −$75 −6.9% | — |
| 238d |  CaptainCoinflip2 fills | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,000 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 238d | asskik | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes100¢ | $5,125 | +$26 +0.5% | 20 |
| 238d |  Chims | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,928 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 238d | Bitz67 | March 31, 2026 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,785 | −$73 −2.6% | — |
| 238d | AZwater | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | +$50 +1.0% | 20 |
| 238d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | +$13 +1.2% | 20 |
| 238d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,817 | +$20 +1.1% | 20 |
| 238d |  TylerTurden7 fills | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $35,040 | +$1,851 +5.3% | 20 |
| 238d |  dashagroyper | March 31, 2026 | SellYes67¢ → 100¢ | $7,607 | −$3,721 −49% | — |
| 238d | Bitz67 | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,715 | +$143 +5.3% | 20 |
| 238d | tinman22 fills | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,109 | +$111 +5.3% | 20 |
| 238d | denizz | March 31, 2026 | SellNo5¢ → 0¢ | $1,609 | +$1,609 +100% | — |
| 238d | Bink_7 | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | +$253 +24% | 20 |
| 238d |  ScottyNooo | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $3,292 | +$1,696 +52% | 20 |
| 238d | ScottyNooo | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $6,744 | +$5,299 +79% | 20 |
| 239d | Myway2 fills | March 31, 2026 | SellNo53¢ → 0¢ | $4,350 | +$4,350 +100% | — |
| 240d | fiso | March 31, 2026 | SellNo43¢ → 0¢ | $1,167 | +$1,167 +100% | — |
| 241d | fiso | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo44¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 20 |
| 242d | Myway3 fills | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo47¢ → 0¢ | $5,024 | −$5,024 −100% | 21 |
| 243d | Generator | March 31, 2026 | SellYes54¢ → 100¢ | $2,229 | −$1,899 −85% | — |
| 253d | Kfkdkkfjfjekfkgjjrjff2 fills | March 31, 2026 | SellNo60¢ → 0¢ | $3,338 | +$3,338 +100% | — |
| 254d | Kfkdkkfjfjekfkgjjrjff | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $2,520 | −$2,520 −100% | 20 |
| 261d | leqso0410 | March 31, 2026 | SellNo59¢ → 0¢ | $1,726 | +$1,726 +100% | — |
| 261d | denizz | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes37¢ → 100¢ | $4,311 | +$7,349 +170% | 24 |
| 261d |  de5nuts3 fills | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes41¢ → 100¢ | $4,948 | +$7,111 +144% | 23 |
| 263d |  hedgyhedgehoghedger | March 31, 2026 | SellNo59¢ → 0¢ | $1,534 | +$1,534 +100% | — |
| 263d | denizz2 fills | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo53¢ → 0¢ | $15,684 | −$15,684 −100% | 20 |
| 263d | denizz | June 30, 2026 | BuyNo40¢ → 0¢ | $1,186 | −$1,186 −100% | 20 |
| 263d | bitcoinorange3 fills | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $3,661 | +$3,200 +87% | 20 |
| 264d | claudecoder34 | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | +$945 +92% | 20 |
| 264d |  Roflan-ludoman | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo51¢ → 0¢ | $3,023 | −$3,023 −100% | 20 |
| 265d | HypeBoy | March 31, 2026 | SellYes54¢ → 100¢ | $2,858 | −$2,436 −85% | — |
| 273d |  AlAhmeda | June 30, 2026 | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$613 +59% | 20 |
| 277d | therunout | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo55¢ → 0¢ | $2,742 | −$2,742 −100% | 20 |
| 278d | hedgyhedgehoghedger | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo52¢ → 0¢ | $1,560 | −$1,560 −100% | 20 |
| 280d |  Tenebrus7 | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo52¢ → 0¢ | $2,805 | −$2,805 −100% | 20 |
| 280d | r888 | March 31, 2026 | SellYes48¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | −$1,127 −108% | — |
| 281d | Roflan-ludoman | June 30, 2026 | BuyNo38¢ → 0¢ | $1,416 | −$1,416 −100% | 21 |
| 281d | tajir | June 30, 2026 | BuyNo38¢ → 0¢ | $1,140 | −$1,140 −100% | 20 |
| 281d |  MEPP3 fills | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo61¢ → 0¢ | $5,492 | −$5,492 −100% | 20 |
| 281d |  uncleroger | March 31, 2026 | SellYes55¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | −$900 −82% | — |
| 281d | TheBigYulanda | March 31, 2026 | SellYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,964 | −$1,543 −79% | — |
| 281d |  Festka | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo41¢ → 0¢ | $5,128 | −$5,128 −100% | 23 |
| 282d | bearbees2 | March 31, 2026 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $2,358 | −$1,572 −67% | — |
| 283d | Jordanius | March 31, 2026 | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $1,792 | −$1,166 −65% | — |
| 284d | testiclepulveriser | March 31, 2026 | SellYes55¢ → 100¢ | $1,955 | −$1,613 −83% | — |
| 285d |  just.some.guy.2026 | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo47¢ → 0¢ | $1,031 | −$1,031 −100% | 20 |
| 285d | nutinsider | March 31, 2026 | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $1,907 | −$1,438 −75% | — |
| 286d |  classified | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo45¢ → 0¢ | $1,416 | −$1,416 −100% | 20 |
| 290d | himalayagoat | March 31, 2026 | BuyNo51¢ → 0¢ | $4,000 | −$4,000 −100% | 20 |
| 290d |  kekkone | March 31, 2026 | SellNo62¢ → 0¢ | $1,743 | +$1,743 +100% | — |
| 291d | MEPP2 fills | March 31, 2026 | SellNo69¢ → 0¢ | $4,661 | +$4,661 +100% | — |
| 291d | testiclepulveriser | March 31, 2026 | BuyYes38¢ → 100¢ | $1,046 | +$1,684 +161% | 20 |
| 292d | Mariobelt | March 31, 2026 | SellYes30¢ → 100¢ | $1,941 | −$4,457 −230% | — |
Roflan-ludoman32,441 shares
AngryRhino10,504 shares
ImJustKen9,335 shares
MasonsConqueredRome4,070 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 100%.