| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 205 | 69¢ → 73¢ | $150 | +$8 +5.7% |
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Ends ended | Yes | 105 | 95¢ → >99¢ | $105 | +$5 +4.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Ends in 2d | Yes | 103 | 98¢ → 97¢ | $99 | −$1 −0.8% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 9d | Yes | 99 | 80¢ → 85¢ | $83 | +$4 +5.6% |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 8d | No | 90 | 89¢ → 92¢ | $82 | +$2 +2.8% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 119 | 63¢ → 62¢ | $73 | −$2 −2.4% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 8d | Yes | 98 | 43¢ → 51¢ | $50 | +$8 +19% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 476 | 25¢ → 11¢ | $50 | −$68 −57% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 155 | 28¢ → 22¢ | $33 | −$10 −23% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 8d | Yes | 46 | 43¢ → 72¢ | $33 | +$13 +68% |
| Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Ends in 40d | Yes | 85 | 33¢ → 32¢ | $27 | −$1 −4.5% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 77 | 17¢ → 31¢ | $24 | +$11 +82% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 11d | No | 135 | 35¢ → 16¢ | $21 | −$26 −56% |
| Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Ends in 15d | Yes | 37 | 67¢ → 52¢ | $19 | −$6 −23% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TN-03 House seat?Ends in 15d | Yes | 475 | 5¢ → 4¢ | $19 | −$4 −18% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-15 House seat?Ends in 15d | Yes | 478 | 6¢ → 4¢ | $19 | −$10 −33% |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 60 | 27¢ → 31¢ | $18 | +$2 +13% |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-46 House seat?Ends in 15d | Yes | 484 | 5¢ → 4¢ | $18 | −$8 −31% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Ends in 254d | Yes | 208 | 7¢ → 8¢ | $17 | +$2 +14% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 52 | 28¢ → 31¢ | $16 | +$1 +8.9% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?Ends in 15d | Yes | 48 | 30¢ → 33¢ | $16 | +$1 +8.3% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 60 | 24¢ → 25¢ | $15 | +$0 +2.1% |
| Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?Ends in 15d | No | 98 | 15¢ → 14¢ | $14 | −$0 −3.3% |
| Will the Republican Party win the PA-06 House seat?Ends in 15d | Yes | 483 | 4¢ → 3¢ | $14 | −$6 −30% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MN-07 House seat?Ends in 15d | Yes | 497 | 5¢ → 3¢ | $14 | −$13 −48% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 90 | 16¢ → 15¢ | $14 | −$1 −6.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 36 | 41¢ → 37¢ | $13 | −$2 −11% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VT-AL House election by 40%-45%?Ends in 15d | Yes | 51 | 31¢ → 24¢ | $12 | −$4 −23% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Ends in 42d | No | 16 | 67¢ → 76¢ | $12 | +$1 +13% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 80 | 18¢ → 15¢ | $12 | −$2 −17% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 16d | Yes | 32 | 32¢ → 36¢ | $11 | +$1 +11% |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Ends in 51d | No | 58 | 25¢ → 20¢ | $11 | −$3 −22% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Ends in 104d | No | 93 | 16¢ → 12¢ | $11 | −$4 −25% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 80 | 15¢ → 14¢ | $11 | −$1 −7.0% |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Ends in 4d | No | 14 | 32¢ → 78¢ | $11 | +$6 +142% |
| Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Ends in 4d | No | 12 | 32¢ → 89¢ | $11 | +$7 +177% |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?Ends in 11d | Yes | 197 | 6¢ → 5¢ | $11 | −$1 −12% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 162 | 8¢ → 7¢ | $11 | −$2 −19% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 61 | 24¢ → 17¢ | $10 | −$4 −29% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 50d | Yes | 53 | 28¢ → 20¢ | $10 | −$5 −30% |
| Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 38 | 39¢ → 26¢ | $10 | −$5 −33% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Ends in 42d | Yes | 106 | 14¢ → 9¢ | $10 | −$5 −36% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 12d | Yes | 70 | 18¢ → 13¢ | $9 | −$4 −29% |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 21 | 44¢ → 39¢ | $8 | −$1 −12% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 45 | 19¢ → 17¢ | $7 | −$1 −13% |
| Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 73d | Yes | 50 | 29¢ → 14¢ | $7 | −$7 −50% |
| Plague case in US by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 95 | 15¢ → 8¢ | $7 | −$7 −49% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 9d | Yes | 41 | 35¢ → 14¢ | $6 | −$8 −59% |
| Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Ends in 7d | Yes | 15 | 32¢ → 36¢ | $5 | +$1 +11% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 17 | 29¢ → 27¢ | $5 | −$0 −7.3% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Ends in 12d | Yes | 150 | 10¢ → 3¢ | $5 | −$10 −70% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Ends in 133d | No | 23 | 35¢ → 19¢ | $4 | −$4 −46% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Ends in 41d | Yes | 10 | 39¢ → 30¢ | $3 | −$1 −24% |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 16 | 16¢ → 18¢ | $3 | +$0 +13% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 15d | Yes | 74 | 7¢ → 4¢ | $3 | −$2 −45% |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Ends in 12d | Yes | 48 | 29¢ → 5¢ | $2 | −$12 −83% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 12d | Yes | 70 | 21¢ → 3¢ | $2 | −$13 −87% |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-02 House seat?Ends in 15d | Yes | 592 | 4¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$23 −96% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 25, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 6 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 69 | 27¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$19 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 7 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 14 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Will Lacy and Marlon have between 6 and 7 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 18 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's US Open?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 395 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 324 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 32 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 112 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 214 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 94 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 118 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$33 −100% |
| Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 74 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 78 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by October 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 217 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 76 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 21 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 44 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 293 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
| Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 120 and 149 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 19 | 40¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 28 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 181 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 702 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$42 −100% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 65 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 294 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$65 −100% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 135 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will Linke win between 12% and 15% of all valid second votes?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 24 | 37¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 124 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$40 −100% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 201 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 128 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 53 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 42 | 17¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 136 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 80 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will KT Rolster win the Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 37 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$17 −100% |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 83 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 231 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$12 −100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 266 | 75¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$198 −100% |
| Will JD Vance say "Free Speech" or "Freedom of Speech" during RNC Convention?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 29 | 43¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 40 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$14 −100% |
