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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 74% | +1 pts | −3 pts | 73¢ · 75¢ (2¢) | $24K | in 46d |
| No change | 21% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 20¢ · 21¢ (1¢) | $14.6K | in 46d |
| 50+ bps increase | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $3.54K | in 46d |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% | — | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $13.7K | in 46d |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $5.35K | in 46d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h |  win-ok | No change | SellYes20¢ → 21¢ | $1,164 | −$17 −1.5% | — |
| 7h | Supernature885 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes75¢ → 74¢ | $14,206 | −$181 −1.3% | 27 |
| 12h |  Citronnade | 25 bps increase | BuyYes75¢ → 74¢ | $9,255 | −$123 −1.3% | 27 |
| 17h | ratehikes | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo97¢ | $1,975 | +$1 +0.0% | 12 |
| 1d | fanaticoin | No change | SellYes23¢ → 21¢ | $1,150 | +$125 +11% | — |
| 1d |  truthteller | 25 bps increase | SellNo31¢ → 26¢ | $2,140 | +$373 +17% | — |
| 1d | skydodo | 25 bps increase | SellYes66¢ → 74¢ | $1,830 | −$225 −12% | — |
| 1d | CDAP16 fills | 25 bps increase | SellYes74¢ | $51,168 | +$253 +0.5% | — |
| 1d | hippoka | 25 bps increase | SellYes72¢ → 74¢ | $3,179 | −$103 −3.3% | — |
| 2d |  foodenjoyer2 fills | No change | BuyYes21¢ | $7,075 | −$279 −3.9% | 41 |
| 2d | puravida | No change | BuyYes20¢ → 21¢ | $1,311 | +$33 +2.5% | 19 |
| 2d | suntori | 25 bps increase | BuyYes79¢ → 74¢ | $1,869 | −$118 −6.3% | 14 |
| 3d | donthackme11 fills | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $14,526 | −$140 −1.0% | 11 |
| 3d |  HelloWorld2024 | 25 bps increase | BuyYes78¢ → 74¢ | $9,750 | −$500 −5.1% | 25 |
| 3d | donthackme6 fills | No change | BuyNo79¢ → 80¢ | $6,834 | +$57 +0.8% | 24 |
| 3d | zerone777 | No change | BuyNo81¢ → 80¢ | $1,554 | −$29 −1.9% | 15 |
| 3d | kaxel78 | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $1,163 | −$5 −0.5% | 12 |
| 3d | alex200114 fills | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $4,602 | −$22 −0.5% | 12 |
| 3d | donthackme14 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo99¢ | $18,742 | +$92 +0.5% | 11 |
| 3d | zerone777 | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $1,870 | −$9 −0.5% | 12 |
| 3d | donthackme15 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,376 | −$5 −0.0% | 10 |
| 3d | Connorg | 50+ bps decrease | SellNo>99¢ | $1,018 | +$1 +0.1% | — |
| 3d | hideo | No change | SellNo80¢ | $2,500 | +$16 +0.6% | — |
| 4d | Flamboyant-Warming | 25 bps decrease | SellNo99¢ | $1,165 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | Frayed-Focus | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,685 | −$6 −0.2% | 10 |
| 4d | Frayed-Focus | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo99¢ | $3,674 | −$2 −0.1% | 10 |
| 4d | Frayed-Focus | No change | BuyNo80¢ | $1,434 | −$9 −0.6% | 15 |
| 4d | CDAP133 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes65¢ → 74¢ | $225,284 | +$31,030 +14% | 30 |
| 5d | win-ok | No change | BuyYes20¢ → 21¢ | $1,000 | +$25 +2.5% | 15 |
| 5d | Chakamanle2 fills | No change | SellYes20¢ → 21¢ | $5,515 | −$57 −1.0% | — |
| 6d | QMG-CORE | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,984 | −$2 −0.1% | 10 |
| 6d | QMG-CORE2 fills | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo97¢ | $3,888 | −$6 −0.2% | 12 |
| 6d | QMG-CORE | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo99¢ | $2,982 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 7d | pieped | No change | BuyYes21¢ | $2,156 | −$51 −2.4% | 26 |
| 7d | Chakamanle2 fills | No change | BuyYes20¢ → 21¢ | $7,718 | +$50 +0.6% | 42 |
| 8d |  StupidMonkeyyy | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo97¢ | $1,017 | +$3 +0.2% | 12 |
| 8d | forgetfuldory | No change | SellNo81¢ → 80¢ | $1,236 | +$23 +1.9% | — |
| 9d | melonmanm | No change | BuyNo81¢ → 80¢ | $1,451 | −$27 −1.9% | 15 |
| 9d | simpleman | No change | BuyNo82¢ → 80¢ | $3,098 | −$94 −3.0% | 20 |
| 9d | simpleman2 fills | 25 bps increase | SellYes76¢ → 74¢ | $5,109 | +$148 +2.9% | — |
| 10d | lpgb | No change | BuyNo81¢ → 80¢ | $1,422 | −$26 −1.9% | 15 |
| 10d | Avamax | 25 bps increase | BuyYes79¢ → 74¢ | $10,048 | −$636 −6.3% | 24 |
| 10d | Poligarch | No change | SellNo81¢ → 80¢ | $3,757 | +$70 +1.9% | — |
| 10d | hippoka4 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes78¢ → 74¢ | $5,793 | −$322 −5.6% | 24 |
| 10d | Poligarch | No change | BuyNo79¢ → 80¢ | $4,216 | +$11 +0.3% | 24 |
| 10d | Poligarch | 25 bps increase | BuyYes76¢ → 74¢ | $4,165 | −$110 −2.6% | 21 |
| 10d | wayyt | No change | BuyYes22¢ → 21¢ | $1,000 | −$68 −6.8% | 15 |
| 10d | 6idontknow123451334 | No change | SellYes22¢ → 21¢ | $1,781 | +$121 +6.8% | — |
| 10d | 6idontknow123451334 | No change | BuyYes25¢ → 21¢ | $3,635 | −$631 −17% | 36 |
| 11d | alex20011 | No change | BuyNo78¢ → 80¢ | $1,025 | +$20 +1.9% | 14 |
| 11d | Doormat986 | No change | BuyYes23¢ → 21¢ | $2,381 | −$273 −11% | 27 |
| 11d | yoren | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,750 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 12d | forgetfuldory | No change | BuyNo78¢ → 80¢ | $1,416 | +$27 +1.9% | 16 |
| 12d | 1239874562 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,408 | +$1 +0.0% | 10 |
| 12d | WarriorH5 fills | No change | BuyNo74¢ → 80¢ | $7,933 | +$606 +7.6% | 27 |
| 12d | 1239874562 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo99¢ | $2,403 | +$16 +0.7% | 11 |
| 16d | simpleman2 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes75¢ → 74¢ | $8,000 | −$101 −1.3% | 27 |
| 16d | simpleman5 fills | No change | SellYes22¢ → 21¢ | $15,564 | +$768 +4.9% | — |
| 19d | WarriorH | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo97¢ | $1,586 | +$6 +0.4% | 12 |
| 21d | truthteller2 fills | No change | BuyYes24¢ → 21¢ | $4,540 | −$645 −14% | 38 |
HelloWorld202414,580 sharesCitronnade12,355 shares
PantheraUncia23,010 sharestruthteller11,374 shares
balthazar2,995 sharesThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 74¢ for 25 bps increase means the market gives it about 74%.