| Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 596 | 88¢ → 99¢ | $588 | +$63 +12% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 530 | 85¢ → 80¢ | $421 | −$29 −6.5% |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 520 | 74¢ → 78¢ | $403 | +$19 +4.9% |
| Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30?Ends in 37d | No | 400 | 84¢ → 93¢ | $372 | +$36 +11% |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 400 | 63¢ → 90¢ | $358 | +$106 +42% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 6d | Yes | 450 | 79¢ → 79¢ | $353 | −$4 −1.1% |
| Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 330 | 86¢ → 90¢ | $295 | +$10 +3.6% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Ends in 7d | No | 300 | 84¢ → 95¢ | $286 | +$33 +13% |
| Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 316 | 92¢ → 91¢ | $286 | −$5 −1.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 300 | 67¢ → 95¢ | $284 | +$84 +42% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 350 | 70¢ → 79¢ | $277 | +$33 +13% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 4d | Yes | 300 | 85¢ → 87¢ | $260 | +$5 +1.8% |
| Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Ends in 249d | No | 303 | 58¢ → 84¢ | $255 | +$79 +45% |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 250 | 76¢ → 99¢ | $247 | +$57 +30% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 400 | 48¢ → 60¢ | $238 | +$46 +24% |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 250 | 86¢ → 92¢ | $230 | +$15 +7.2% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 10d | Yes | 300 | 75¢ → 76¢ | $227 | +$2 +0.7% |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 250 | 79¢ → 85¢ | $213 | +$15 +7.6% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 305 | 65¢ → 69¢ | $211 | +$12 +6.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 316 | 49¢ → 66¢ | $210 | +$57 +37% |
| Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 200 | 83¢ → 99¢ | $197 | +$31 +19% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 220 | 52¢ → 87¢ | $190 | +$76 +66% |
| Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 200 | 78¢ → 94¢ | $188 | +$32 +21% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 6d | Yes | 220 | 86¢ → 85¢ | $186 | −$3 −1.7% |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Ends in 37d | Yes | 216 | 72¢ → 82¢ | $178 | +$22 +14% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 250 | 69¢ → 71¢ | $178 | +$5 +2.9% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 37d | No | 220 | 74¢ → 80¢ | $175 | +$12 +7.6% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 180 | 70¢ → 96¢ | $172 | +$46 +37% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 200 | 75¢ → 75¢ | $149 | −$1 −0.7% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 67d | Yes | 414 | 58¢ → 36¢ | $147 | −$93 −39% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 3d | No | 200 | 72¢ → 73¢ | $145 | +$1 +0.7% |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 155 | 80¢ → 91¢ | $140 | +$16 +13% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 213 | 56¢ → 61¢ | $130 | +$11 +8.9% |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 150 | 41¢ → 83¢ | $125 | +$63 +102% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Ends in 15d | Yes | 200 | 60¢ → 61¢ | $121 | +$1 +0.8% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Ends in 36d | Yes | 160 | 62¢ → 76¢ | $121 | +$22 +22% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?Ends in 5d | Yes | 200 | 50¢ → 59¢ | $118 | +$18 +18% |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 120 | 75¢ → 98¢ | $117 | +$27 +31% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 150 | 72¢ → 78¢ | $116 | +$8 +7.6% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 27?Ends in 3d | Yes | 143 | 62¢ → 75¢ | $108 | +$19 +21% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 130 | 60¢ → 83¢ | $107 | +$29 +38% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 100 | 77¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$19 +25% |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 100 | 87¢ → 95¢ | $95 | +$8 +9.7% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 4d | No | 100 | 84¢ → 95¢ | $95 | +$11 +13% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?Ends ended | Yes | 100 | 63¢ → 87¢ | $87 | +$24 +37% |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 67d | No | 112 | 77¢ → 76¢ | $85 | −$2 −1.9% |
| Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?Ends in 67d | No | 100 | 71¢ → 68¢ | $68 | −$4 −4.9% |
| China ballistic missile launch by December 31?Ends in 68d | Yes | 312 | 17¢ → 22¢ | $67 | +$14 +26% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 10d | No | 200 | 49¢ → 34¢ | $67 | −$31 −32% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 69 | 86¢ → 95¢ | $65 | +$6 +9.9% |
| Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 115 | 63¢ → 31¢ | $36 | −$37 −51% |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 152 | 32¢ → 12¢ | $18 | −$30 −63% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 17 | 88¢ → 97¢ | $17 | +$2 +10% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 6d | Yes | 286 | 46¢ → 5¢ | $14 | −$118 −90% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Ends in 68d | Yes | 130 | 62¢ → 10¢ | $12 | −$68 −85% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Ends in 6d | Yes | 200 | 28¢ → 6¢ | $11 | −$45 −80% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 200 | 67¢ → 4¢ | $8 | −$126 −94% |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 57 | 30¢ → 13¢ | $7 | −$10 −58% |
| Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Ends in 157d | Yes | 186 | 47¢ → 4¢ | $7 | −$79 −92% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Ends in 158d | Yes | 10 | 73¢ → 56¢ | $6 | −$2 −23% |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 225 | 15¢ → 1¢ | $2 | −$33 −94% |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 50 | 7¢ → 2¢ | $1 | −$3 −71% |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 17 | 27¢ → 3¢ | $1 | −$4 −88% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 168 | 83¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$140 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 20 | 74¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 262 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$73 −100% |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 125 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 260 | 70¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$181 −100% |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 58 | 75¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$43 −100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,000 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$39 −100% |
| Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in September 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 508 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$117 −100% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 152 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$37 −100% |
| Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 375 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$24 −100% |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 300 | 82¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$246 −100% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,706 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$33 −100% |
| Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$135 −100% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 310 | 82¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$254 −100% |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 422 | 92¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$389 −100% |
| Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 39 | 44¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$17 −100% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 76 | 80¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$61 −100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,190 | 84¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,000 −100% |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 8 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 120 | 91¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$109 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 743 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$74 −100% |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 289 | 71¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$205 −100% |
| Will Régis Gaudreault win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$35 −100% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 150 | 85¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$128 −100% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 192 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$96 −100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,500 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,557 | 96¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,500 −100% |
| Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in August 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 132 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$42 −100% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 359 | 37¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$134 −100% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 498 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$137 −100% |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 87¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$87 −100% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | 35¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$35 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 337 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$107 −100% |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 15 | 56¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 160 | 30¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$48 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 450 | 25¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$114 −100% |
| Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 120 | 53¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$64 −100% |
