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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $5.46K | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15h |  zb83 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $20,706 | +$499 +2.4% | 8 |
| 1d |  DEGENKHAN3 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $5,380 | +$206 +3.8% | 9 |
| 3d |  ImJustKen | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $6,557 | −$44 −0.7% | — |
| 5d | iraa33 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $4,533 | +$29 +0.6% | 7 |
| 6d |  tetrase2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $6,621 | +$17 +0.3% | 6 |
| 9d |  Tenebrus74 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $10,207 | −$148 −1.4% | — |
| 10d | QMG-CORE5 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $11,567 | +$421 +3.6% | 8 |
| 11d | LukiB2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $7,715 | +$131 +1.7% | 7 |
| 11d | QMG-SCALAR5 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $12,408 | +$793 +6.4% | 10 |
| 12d | Worse-Scenario | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $2,513 | −$13 −0.5% | — |
| 14d | enrico-vasaio | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,285 | +$7 +0.6% | 6 |
| 17d | TheEvilMoneyDestroyer | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,052 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 18d | Bikesarethebest | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,654 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 26d | Private-Barrel | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $2,008 | −$43 −2.1% | — |
| 41d | delphy2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $4,000 | +$55 +1.4% | 7 |
| 69d | TronOG3 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $10,669 | +$218 +2.0% | 7 |
| 76d | Elias.Thornwell | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,029 | +$17 +1.6% | 6 |
| 78d | Rundown-Schoolhouse | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 97¢ | $1,010 | −$24 −2.4% | — |
| 93d | trerira | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,310 | +$29 +2.2% | 7 |
| 99d | trzorira2 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,114 | +$23 +2.1% | 7 |
| 101d | QMG-CORE3 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 97¢ | $4,298 | −$331 −7.7% | — |
| 105d | BlindAndDeaf | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $2,000 | +$56 +2.8% | 8 |
| 114d | MirAsifAhr | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 97¢ | $1,688 | −$54 −3.2% | — |
| 116d | Private-Barrel | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $2,000 | +$51 +2.5% | 8 |
| 122d | Rundown-Schoolhouse2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $4,059 | +$202 +5.0% | 9 |
| 125d |  zthunderfury | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $2,039 | +$89 +4.4% | 9 |
| 128d | Jest552 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $4,991 | +$331 +6.6% | 10 |
| 130d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b044 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $11,580 | +$1,034 +8.9% | 11 |
| 130d |  adonpoli | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $4,721 | +$354 +7.5% | 11 |
| 132d | insidero | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $1,800 | +$135 +7.5% | 11 |
| 132d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $4,500 | +$338 +7.5% | 11 |
| 135d |  Ryxon212 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $4,273 | +$224 +5.2% | 9 |
| 136d | Tenebrus73 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $5,154 | +$368 +7.1% | 10 |
| 142d | BTCisMYlove | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,010 | −$59 −5.8% | — |
| 157d | 234falcon | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,013 | −$64 −6.3% | — |
| 162d | justme003 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,229 | −$78 −6.3% | — |
| 171d |  Marco-Rubio | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $5,059 | +$379 +7.5% | 11 |
| 176d | 123pocky | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $2,002 | +$126 +6.3% | 10 |
| 179d | BrightStars | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 97¢ | $2,683 | −$220 −8.2% | — |
| 183d | Lined-Reclamation3 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $16,046 | +$1,105 +6.9% | 10 |
| 187d | TREND | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $1,208 | +$105 +8.7% | 10 |
| 189d | Mwhale | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 97¢ | $2,734 | −$238 −8.7% | — |
| 189d | aviato | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 97¢ | $3,350 | −$251 −7.5% | — |
| 197d |  VegemiteLover | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $1,318 | +$68 +5.2% | 9 |
| 197d |  spectral-mango-protocol | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $8,732 | +$553 +6.3% | 10 |
| 200d |  DaMonkeyHope | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 97¢ | $2,846 | −$249 −8.7% | — |
| 206d | DaMonkeyHope | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $2,431 | +$182 +7.5% | 11 |
| 207d | technocapital | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellYes12¢ → 3¢ | $1,247 | +$913 +73% | — |
| 216d | projectparrot | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 97¢ | $1,502 | −$208 −14% | — |
| 217d | MirAsifAhr | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 97¢ | $1,548 | +$194 +13% | 13 |
| 218d | D33pCynic4 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyYes18¢ → 3¢ | $18,795 | −$15,339 −82% | 42 |
| 219d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 97¢ | $2,241 | −$251 −11% | — |
| 220d |  tourists | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 97¢ | $1,099 | +$123 +11% | 11 |
| 220d | technocapital | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyYes15¢ → 3¢ | $5,558 | −$4,321 −78% | 36 |
| 221d | Domador2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo86¢ → 97¢ | $6,870 | −$814 −12% | — |
| 221d | Domador2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 97¢ | $8,989 | +$1,059 +12% | 13 |
| 221d |  Copezilla | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 97¢ | $1,305 | −$146 −11% | — |
| 221d | welcometohell2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 97¢ | $2,340 | −$262 −11% | — |
| 222d | Copezilla | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 97¢ | $1,320 | +$131 +9.9% | 12 |
| 222d | k00pa2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 97¢ | $4,375 | +$463 +11% | 12 |
RememberAmalek23,103 shares
gods-eye20,300 shares
Snow-White20,000 shares
Volku18,186 shares
MEPP83,353 shares95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b0428,134 shareszb821,923 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 3%.