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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | 14% | — | +1 pts | 13¢ · 14¢ (1¢) | $137 | in 69d |
| Iran Reconstruction Funding | 9% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | $119 | in 69d |
| Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | 14% | — | — | 14¢ · 15¢ (1¢) | $73.8 | in 69d |
| Enriched Uranium Surrender | 9% | — | +4 pts | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | $63.1 | in 69d |
| 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | 11% | — | +1 pts | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | $50 | in 69d |
| Dilution of Iran's Uranium | 12% | — | −1 pts | 11¢ · 13¢ (2¢) | $14.8 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | Enriched Uranium Surrender | BuyNo89¢ → 92¢ | $1,782 | +$41 +2.3% | 27 | |
| 5d | Enriched Uranium Surrender | BuyNo92¢ | $1,097 | −$6 −0.5% | 25 | |
| 8d | anoin123 | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | SellNo86¢ | $1,719 | +$10 +0.6% | — |
| 9d | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo80¢ → 87¢ | $10,198 | +$868 +8.5% | 34 | |
| 9d | hfv | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo87¢ → 86¢ | $2,050 | −$35 −1.7% | 29 |
| 9d | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo79¢ → 86¢ | $18,818 | +$1,672 +8.9% | 34 | |
| 9d | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | BuyNo72¢ → 88¢ | $17,510 | +$4,002 +23% | 39 | |
| 9d | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | BuyNo87¢ → 88¢ | $1,062 | +$12 +1.1% | 29 | |
| 10d | pnunt | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | SellNo86¢ → 87¢ | $8,368 | −$49 −0.6% | — |
| 10d | subjec | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | SellNo86¢ → 87¢ | $9,700 | −$56 −0.6% | — |
| 10d | nvwa | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | SellNo86¢ → 87¢ | $2,595 | −$15 −0.6% | — |
| 10d | lemeon | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | SellNo86¢ → 87¢ | $9,703 | −$56 −0.6% | — |
| 10d | glasse | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | SellNo86¢ → 87¢ | $8,814 | −$51 −0.6% | — |
| 17d | MonacoLover2 fills | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo86¢ | $3,053 | −$22 −0.7% | 29 |
| 17d | hopedieslast2 fills | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo85¢ → 86¢ | $6,035 | +$27 +0.4% | 30 |
| 18d | hopedieslast | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo85¢ → 87¢ | $1,506 | +$27 +1.8% | 30 |
| 22d | hfv | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | SellNo81¢ → 88¢ | $1,084 | −$93 −8.6% | — |
| 24d | KiernanMeister | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | SellNo90¢ | $1,625 | +$9 +0.6% | — |
| 25d | Skinny-Class2 fills | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo86¢ → 87¢ | $2,486 | +$13 +0.5% | 29 |
| 25d | Skinny-Class3 fills | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | BuyNo87¢ → 88¢ | $4,032 | +$49 +1.2% | 29 |
| 25d | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | SellNo88¢ → 90¢ | $1,665 | −$24 −1.4% | — | |
| 25d | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | SellNo81¢ → 86¢ | $3,515 | −$193 −5.5% | — | |
| 26d | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | BuyNo88¢ → 90¢ | $7,449 | +$108 +1.5% | 28 | |
| 27d | Iran Reconstruction Funding | SellNo86¢ → 92¢ | $29,337 | −$1,747 −6.0% | — | |
| 28d | Iran Reconstruction Funding | SellYes14¢ → 9¢ | $1,727 | +$701 +41% | — | |
| 28d | hfv | Iran Reconstruction Funding | BuyNo88¢ → 92¢ | $1,119 | +$45 +4.0% | 28 |
| 29d | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | BuyNo84¢ → 90¢ | $1,518 | +$107 +7.0% | 31 | |
| 29d | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | BuyYes13¢ → 14¢ | $1,284 | +$148 +12% | 42 | |
| 30d | pnunt | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo87¢ | $8,477 | −$49 −0.6% | 29 |
| 30d | subjec | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo87¢ | $9,813 | −$56 −0.6% | 29 |
| 30d | lemeon | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo87¢ | $9,815 | −$56 −0.6% | 29 |
| 30d | glasse | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo87¢ | $8,917 | −$51 −0.6% | 29 |
| 30d | nvwa | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo86¢ → 87¢ | $2,595 | +$15 +0.6% | 29 |
| 31d | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | BuyYes16¢ → 11¢ | $1,986 | −$674 −34% | 44 | |
| 31d | Skinny-Class | Iran Reconstruction Funding | BuyYes19¢ → 9¢ | $1,140 | −$630 −55% | 41 |
| 31d | Skinny-Class | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | BuyNo83¢ → 86¢ | $2,486 | +$79 +3.2% | 31 |
| 32d | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | BuyYes17¢ → 14¢ | $1,569 | −$258 −16% | 43 | |
| 34d | equalsignificance | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | BuyYes13¢ → 14¢ | $1,316 | +$116 +8.8% | 42 |
| 34d | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | BuyYes11¢ → 14¢ | $1,213 | +$331 +27% | 41 | |
| 39d | Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | SellNo88¢ → 86¢ | $18,377 | +$531 +2.9% | — | |
| 39d | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | SellNo90¢ | $10,929 | +$30 +0.3% | — | |
| 40d | Iran Reconstruction Funding | SellNo85¢ → 92¢ | $3,914 | −$291 −7.4% | — | |
| 41d | Iran Reconstruction Funding | BuyNo72¢ → 92¢ | $29,047 | +$7,966 +27% | 39 | |
| 44d | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | SellNo87¢ → 88¢ | $9,362 | −$146 −1.6% | — | |
| 54d | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | BuyNo91¢ → 88¢ | $1,518 | −$50 −3.3% | 26 | |
| 56d | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | SellNo90¢ → 87¢ | $4,976 | +$184 +3.7% | — | |
| 56d | Enriched Uranium Surrender | BuyNo92¢ | $3,036 | −$17 −0.5% | 25 | |
| 56d | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | BuyNo82¢ → 90¢ | $16,567 | +$1,417 +8.6% | 32 | |
| 58d | Skinny-Class | 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | BuyNo88¢ → 90¢ | $1,760 | +$30 +1.7% | 28 |
| 60d | Iran Reconstruction Funding | BuyNo80¢ → 92¢ | $2,876 | +$427 +15% | 34 | |
| 61d | Enriched Uranium Surrender | SellNo92¢ | $1,219 | +$7 +0.5% | — | |
| 63d | Sticky-Closing | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | SellNo92¢ → 87¢ | $1,685 | +$101 +6.0% | — |
| 63d | Sticky-Closing | Iran Reconstruction Funding | BuyNo82¢ → 92¢ | $1,277 | +$148 +12% | 32 |
| 66d | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | BuyNo74¢ → 88¢ | $3,538 | +$694 +20% | 38 | |
| 67d | krill8102 fills | Iran Reconstruction Funding | SellYes23¢ → 9¢ | $2,537 | +$1,618 +64% | — |
| 68d | Iran Reconstruction Funding | BuyNo69¢ → 92¢ | $5,618 | +$1,787 +32% | 40 | |
| 69d | krill810 | Iran Reconstruction Funding | BuyYes22¢ → 9¢ | $1,849 | −$1,140 −62% | 43 |
| 74d | Enriched Uranium Surrender | BuyNo84¢ → 92¢ | $5,000 | +$444 +8.9% | 31 | |
| 75d | Sticky-Closing | Dilution of Iran's Uranium | BuyNo70¢ → 88¢ | $1,302 | +$341 +26% | 40 |
| 76d | dontshowmyname | Enriched Uranium Surrender | BuyNo88¢ → 92¢ | $2,470 | +$98 +4.0% | 28 |
Rules
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 14¢ for ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) means the market gives it about 14%.