| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 721 | 35¢ → 24¢ | $170 | −$85 −34% |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 434d | No | 155 | 63¢ → 84¢ | $129 | +$32 +33% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,963 | 43¢ → 6¢ | $108 | −$744 −87% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 166 | 79¢ → 65¢ | $108 | −$23 −17% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 106 | 68¢ → 93¢ | $99 | +$27 +38% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 418 | 20¢ → 24¢ | $98 | +$14 +16% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 214 | 54¢ → 44¢ | $94 | −$21 −18% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Ends in 159d | Yes | 143 | 67¢ → 57¢ | $82 | −$13 −14% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 55 | 64¢ → 94¢ | $51 | +$16 +46% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 54 | 27¢ → 95¢ | $51 | +$37 +252% |
| Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 55 | 73¢ → 88¢ | $48 | +$8 +20% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 2d | Yes | 55 | 55¢ → 86¢ | $47 | +$17 +56% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 346 | 49¢ → 14¢ | $47 | −$122 −72% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 55 | 47¢ → 79¢ | $43 | +$17 +67% |
| Putin meets with Iranian officials by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 44 | 63¢ → 98¢ | $43 | +$15 +55% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 55 | 67¢ → 73¢ | $40 | +$3 +8.2% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 11d | No | 122 | 54¢ → 33¢ | $40 | −$27 −40% |
| Will AI solve Beal's conjecture in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 44 | 73¢ → 87¢ | $38 | +$6 +19% |
| Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | No | 55 | 71¢ → 65¢ | $36 | −$3 −8.5% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?Ends in 7d | No | 55 | 63¢ → 64¢ | $35 | +$1 +2.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 140 | 23¢ → 24¢ | $33 | +$2 +5.4% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | Yes | 132 | 26¢ → 25¢ | $33 | −$1 −3.8% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | Yes | 55 | 57¢ → 59¢ | $32 | +$1 +3.5% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay RaysEnds in 10d | Milwaukee Brewers | 66 | 54¢ → 49¢ | $32 | −$4 −11% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 33 | 65¢ → 96¢ | $32 | +$10 +47% |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 33 | 54¢ → 96¢ | $32 | +$14 +78% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 33 | 31¢ → 94¢ | $31 | +$21 +202% |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 33 | 74¢ → 92¢ | $30 | +$6 +24% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 33 | 75¢ → 89¢ | $29 | +$5 +19% |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 33 | 67¢ → 86¢ | $28 | +$6 +28% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 202 | 41¢ → 14¢ | $28 | −$54 −66% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 33 | 57¢ → 84¢ | $28 | +$9 +48% |
| Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 33 | 67¢ → 84¢ | $28 | +$6 +25% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 99 | 36¢ → 28¢ | $28 | −$8 −22% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 33 | 64¢ → 83¢ | $27 | +$6 +29% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 143 | 26¢ → 18¢ | $25 | −$12 −32% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 44 | 52¢ → 54¢ | $24 | +$1 +2.9% |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 33 | 67¢ → 70¢ | $23 | +$1 +3.7% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Ends in 69d | Yes | 40 | 58¢ → 57¢ | $23 | −$0 −1.5% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 37d | No | 33 | 58¢ → 66¢ | $22 | +$2 +13% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 33 | 64¢ → 64¢ | $21 | −$0 −0.8% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersEnds in 7d | Milwaukee Brewers | 33 | 60¢ → 64¢ | $21 | +$1 +5.8% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 44 | 54¢ → 48¢ | $21 | −$3 −12% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 33 | 60¢ → 62¢ | $20 | +$1 +3.3% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 33 | 62¢ → 60¢ | $20 | −$1 −4.0% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 33 | 68¢ → 60¢ | $20 | −$3 −12% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 55 | 60¢ → 35¢ | $19 | −$14 −42% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersEnds in 8d | Milwaukee Brewers | 33 | 60¢ → 57¢ | $19 | −$1 −4.2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 106 | 37¢ → 18¢ | $19 | −$20 −52% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 44 | 44¢ → 42¢ | $18 | −$1 −4.5% |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 22 | 66¢ → 84¢ | $18 | +$4 +27% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 23d | No | 33 | 44¢ → 55¢ | $18 | +$4 +25% |
| SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 33 | 43¢ → 51¢ | $17 | +$2 +17% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | No | 33 | 54¢ → 50¢ | $16 | −$1 −8.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 37d | No | 33 | 29¢ → 50¢ | $16 | +$7 +71% |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 116 | 21¢ → 14¢ | $16 | −$8 −33% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | No | 50 | 50¢ → 33¢ | $16 | −$9 −35% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | Yes | 50 | 50¢ → 33¢ | $16 | −$9 −35% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Ends in 37d | Yes | 33 | 68¢ → 48¢ | $16 | −$7 −30% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 55 | 40¢ → 28¢ | $15 | −$7 −30% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 22 | 22¢ → 69¢ | $15 | +$10 +214% |
| Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | Yes | 55 | 30¢ → 28¢ | $15 | −$1 −8.3% |
| Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-10-23?Ends ended | No | 15 | 59¢ → >99¢ | $15 | +$6 +69% |
| Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-10-23?Ends ended | No | 15 | 55¢ → >99¢ | $15 | +$7 +82% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 11d | Yes | 61 | 33¢ → 25¢ | $15 | −$5 −26% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 168 | 15¢ → 9¢ | $14 | −$11 −44% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | Yes | 49 | 38¢ → 28¢ | $14 | −$5 −25% |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 677 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $14 | +$9 +182% |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 22 | 55¢ → 63¢ | $14 | +$2 +14% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Ends in 100d | No | 33 | 34¢ → 41¢ | $14 | +$2 +21% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 33 | 63¢ → 39¢ | $13 | −$8 −39% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 55 | 62¢ → 23¢ | $12 | −$22 −64% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | Yes | 59 | 60¢ → 21¢ | $12 | −$23 −65% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 55 | 30¢ → 22¢ | $12 | −$4 −25% |
| Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 19 | 58¢ → 63¢ | $12 | +$1 +8.6% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 17 | 47¢ → 69¢ | $11 | +$4 +46% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 38¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$6 +154% |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 44 | 60¢ → 22¢ | $9 | −$17 −64% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Ends in 68d | No | 55 | 22¢ → 17¢ | $9 | −$3 −25% |
| Canadiens vs. BlackhawksEnds in 5h | Canadiens | 15 | 61¢ → 61¢ | $9 | −$0 −0.8% |
| OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 20 | 46¢ → 45¢ | $9 | −$0 −2.2% |
| Will Torino FC win on 2026-10-23?Ends ended | No | 15 | 56¢ → 60¢ | $9 | +$1 +6.3% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 55 | 6¢ → 16¢ | $9 | +$5 +167% |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 103 | 21¢ → 9¢ | $9 | −$13 −60% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 33 | 18¢ → 27¢ | $9 | +$3 +47% |
| Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-10-23?Ends ended | Yes | 15 | 61¢ → 56¢ | $8 | −$1 −7.4% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 746d | Yes | 42 | 24¢ → 20¢ | $8 | −$2 −17% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?Ends in 434d | Yes | 33 | 25¢ → 25¢ | $8 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 746d | Yes | 88 | 9¢ → 9¢ | $8 | +$0 +6.4% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 44 | 22¢ → 18¢ | $8 | −$2 −20% |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 22 | 27¢ → 35¢ | $8 | +$2 +28% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 21 | 35¢ → 36¢ | $8 | +$0 +1.4% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 33 | 41¢ → 23¢ | $7 | −$6 −45% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 44 | 53¢ → 16¢ | $7 | −$16 −70% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?Ends in 433d | Yes | 150 | 1¢ → 5¢ | $7 | +$5 +214% |
| Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | Yes | 55 | 15¢ → 12¢ | $7 | −$2 −20% |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 44 | 20¢ → 15¢ | $7 | −$2 −25% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 116 | 10¢ → 6¢ | $6 | −$5 −42% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 33 | 62¢ → 20¢ | $6 | −$14 −69% |
| US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 55 | 52¢ → 12¢ | $6 | −$22 −78% |
