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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 20% | — | −7 pts | 19¢ · 21¢ (2¢) | — | in 249d |
| March 31, 2027 | 13% | −1 pts | −5 pts | 12¢ · 13¢ (1¢) | — | in 158d |
| December 31, 2027 | 33% | — | −1 pts | 32¢ · 33¢ (1¢) | — | in 433d |
| December 31 | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $911 | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23d | texture3 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,586 | +$20 +0.1% | 4 |
| 23d | thoodr | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,297 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 29d | emp992 | December 31 | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $2,129 | −$49 −2.3% | — |
| 34d | Striped-Crazy | December 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,234 | +$10 +0.8% | 7 |
| 40d | KiernanMeister | December 31 | SellNo94¢ → 97¢ | $2,986 | −$87 −2.9% | — |
| 42d | Poory2 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,930 | +$17 +0.6% | 4 |
| 45d | alwaysOn | December 31 | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,298 | −$24 −1.8% | — |
| 55d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,819 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 61d | nedsta | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,015 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 63d |  Parz1vaI2 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $6,454 | +$424 +6.6% | 4 |
| 66d | Poory | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | +$10 +0.8% | 4 |
| 66d |  MEPP | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,686 | −$43 −2.6% | — |
| 68d | y6tfd | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,274 | −$26 −1.1% | — |
| 70d | Helpful-Headache-Scalp | December 31 | SellNo90¢ → 97¢ | $2,972 | −$223 −7.5% | — |
| 76d | SAPolitcsSeer | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,272 | +$23 +1.0% | 4 |
| 79d | MEPP2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 97¢ | $5,082 | +$1,278 +25% | 19 |
| 82d | yikaiz | December 31 | BuyYes12¢ → 3¢ | $1,190 | −$858 −72% | 25 |
| 83d | afdafdafdafdafd | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,143 | +$94 +1.8% | 4 |
| 83d | Jjw | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,507 | +$28 +1.8% | 4 |
| 85d | yuhyuhyuhy352352 | December 31 | SellNo90¢ → 97¢ | $3,408 | −$268 −7.9% | — |
| 85d | LJa7io23MCv954j | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,037 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 85d |  Seutervoinen | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,144 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 86d | Kevindoto | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,473 | +$35 +2.4% | 4 |
| 86d | Kevindoto | December 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $1,777 | +$133 +7.5% | 11 |
| 87d | ALONE364 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $45,591 | +$1,349 +3.0% | 4 |
| 88d | keribit | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,523 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
| 88d | nedsta | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,948 | +$52 +2.7% | 4 |
| 89d | Seutervoinen | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,639 | −$70 −2.7% | — |
| 89d |  PMTraderAdam | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,698 | +$7 +0.4% | 4 |
| 89d |  tetrase | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo100¢ | $3,172 | +$16 +0.5% | 4 |
| 90d | emp9922 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $6,171 | −$535 −8.7% | — |
| 90d | ALONE362 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $22,770 | −$160 −0.7% | — |
| 90d | nedsta | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,210 | −$13 −0.6% | — |
| 90d | momo513 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo100¢ | $2,985 | +$15 +0.5% | 4 |
| 92d |  scottilicious | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,881 | −$16 −0.4% | — |
| 94d | ALONE362 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $22,708 | −$702 −3.1% | — |
| 94d | MEPP4 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $16,801 | −$383 −2.3% | — |
| 96d | Skinny-Diving7 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $32,353 | +$3,646 +11% | 4 |
| 96d | 0x1fd0…c6a7 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$9 +0.8% | 4 |
| 97d |  Marco-Rubio2 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,493 | +$16 +0.6% | 4 |
| 97d |  SirHarryOakes | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,040 | −$14 −0.5% | — |
| 98d |  i400 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo100¢ | $2,985 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 98d | 18in36out | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,939 | +$16 +0.4% | 4 |
| 100d | justme003 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,338 | −$62 −2.7% | — |
| 100d | cripes3 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,815 | −$47 −2.6% | — |
| 101d | Inchoroi | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,292 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 101d | Serene-Decision | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,099 | +$15 +0.7% | 4 |
| 102d | keribit3 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,012 | +$97 +0.8% | 4 |
| 103d |  cambridgeisaac | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,965 | −$22 −0.7% | — |
| 103d | Sticky-Closing | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,517 | −$160 −2.5% | — |
| 103d | alwaysOn2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 97¢ | $2,477 | +$348 +14% | 14 |
| 105d | PotatoKotato | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,960 | −$40 −0.8% | — |
| 107d | Helpful-Headache-Scalp | December 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 97¢ | $2,900 | +$294 +10% | 12 |
| 107d | Seutervoinen | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,775 | +$22 +1.2% | 4 |
| 108d |  ydxistheking | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,270 | −$52 −1.0% | — |
| 109d | Mithrandiric2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 97¢ | $3,320 | +$550 +17% | 15 |
| 109d | MEPP | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,845 | −$155 −3.2% | — |
| 109d | browne | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,177 | −$98 −3.1% | — |
| 110d | ydxistheking | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,322 | +$296 +3.2% | 4 |
| 112d | justme0032 fills | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,645 | +$110 +4.2% | 4 |
Haradwaith28 shares
LeChatonFat16 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 20¢ for June 30, 2027 means the market gives it about 20%.