| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 1,425 | 77¢ → 79¢ | $1,119 | +$18 +1.7% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 743 | 84¢ → 82¢ | $606 | −$19 −3.0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 23d | No | 1,061 | 47¢ → 53¢ | $563 | +$60 +12% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 551 | 69¢ → 98¢ | $539 | +$158 +41% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 588 | 85¢ → 90¢ | $528 | +$28 +5.5% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | No | 781 | 64¢ → 68¢ | $527 | +$27 +5.5% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | No | 502 | >99¢ → >99¢ | $502 | +$2 +0.3% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 608 | 82¢ → 83¢ | $501 | +$1 +0.2% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 539 | 78¢ → 85¢ | $458 | +$38 +9.0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | No | 571 | 70¢ → 74¢ | $420 | +$20 +5.0% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 1,029 | 35¢ → 40¢ | $407 | +$50 +14% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | No | 444 | 91¢ → 91¢ | $402 | −$2 −0.5% |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 442 | 88¢ → 86¢ | $378 | −$9 −2.4% |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 36d | Yes | 539 | 63¢ → 64¢ | $343 | +$3 +1.0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 844 | 42¢ → 41¢ | $342 | −$9 −2.6% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 496 | 44¢ → 67¢ | $333 | +$114 +52% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 11d | No | 440 | 67¢ → 69¢ | $305 | +$12 +4.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 12d | No | 495 | 69¢ → 61¢ | $302 | −$41 −12% |
| Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 524d | No | 288 | 98¢ → 98¢ | $281 | −$1 −0.5% |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Ends ended | Yes | 347 | 79¢ → 78¢ | $269 | −$5 −1.8% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 37d | No | 368 | 57¢ → 65¢ | $238 | +$29 +14% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 765 | 32¢ → 31¢ | $233 | −$11 −4.3% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 235 | 99¢ → 98¢ | $230 | −$1 −0.5% |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 525d | Yes | 281 | 77¢ → 81¢ | $227 | +$10 +4.7% |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 230 | 97¢ → 96¢ | $221 | −$3 −1.2% |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 300 | 74¢ → 74¢ | $220 | −$1 −0.7% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 348 | 65¢ → 63¢ | $218 | −$10 −4.4% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 38d | No | 263 | 76¢ → 79¢ | $207 | +$7 +3.3% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 222 | 84¢ → 80¢ | $176 | −$10 −5.6% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 199 | 79¢ → 83¢ | $165 | +$8 +5.1% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?Ends in 12d | No | 176 | 84¢ → 91¢ | $159 | +$11 +7.7% |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 325 | 45¢ → 45¢ | $146 | +$1 +0.9% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 511 | 33¢ → 28¢ | $146 | −$21 −12% |
| Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 525d | No | 144 | 99¢ → >99¢ | $144 | +$1 +0.7% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 173 | 75¢ → 79¢ | $137 | +$8 +6.0% |
| Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 157 | 82¢ → 87¢ | $136 | +$8 +6.1% |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 434d | No | 137 | 89¢ → 94¢ | $129 | +$7 +5.6% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Ends in 434d | Yes | 208 | 55¢ → 55¢ | $114 | −$0 −0.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseEnds in 11d | No | 123 | 92¢ → 93¢ | $114 | +$1 +0.8% |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 293 | 29¢ → 35¢ | $102 | +$19 +22% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 101 | 92¢ → 98¢ | $99 | +$5 +5.7% |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 588 | 16¢ → 16¢ | $91 | −$3 −3.1% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 111 | 81¢ → 77¢ | $85 | −$5 −5.6% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 108 | 82¢ → 77¢ | $83 | −$6 −6.7% |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 94 | 88¢ → 87¢ | $81 | −$1 −1.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Ends in 159d | No | 186 | 37¢ → 44¢ | $81 | +$12 +18% |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Ends in 3d | Yes | 111 | 85¢ → 66¢ | $73 | −$22 −23% |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | No | 78 | 95¢ → 94¢ | $73 | −$1 −1.6% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 434d | Yes | 717 | 10¢ → 10¢ | $72 | −$2 −2.4% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?Ends in 434d | No | 74 | 95¢ → 91¢ | $68 | −$3 −4.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 37d | Yes | 140 | 57¢ → 48¢ | $67 | −$13 −16% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 388 | 18¢ → 17¢ | $66 | −$4 −5.7% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 89 | 73¢ → 74¢ | $66 | +$0 +0.7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 65 | 87¢ → 96¢ | $62 | +$6 +11% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d | Yes | 429 | 14¢ → 14¢ | $59 | +$0 +0.4% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 277 | 19¢ → 21¢ | $58 | +$6 +11% |
| No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 58 | 98¢ → 98¢ | $57 | −$0 −0.9% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Ends in 15h | Yes | 72 | 67¢ → 71¢ | $51 | +$3 +6.2% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 55 | 76¢ → 90¢ | $49 | +$8 +18% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Ends in 69d | No | 65 | 74¢ → 75¢ | $49 | +$1 +1.8% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Ends in 100d | Yes | 85 | 54¢ → 56¢ | $47 | +$2 +3.9% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 46 | 82¢ → 94¢ | $44 | +$6 +15% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 156 | 30¢ → 27¢ | $41 | −$5 −12% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 579 | 28¢ → 7¢ | $41 | −$122 −75% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Ends in 53d | No | 149 | 21¢ → 27¢ | $40 | +$9 +29% |
| Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 132 | 38¢ → 30¢ | $39 | −$11 −21% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?Ends in 84d | Yes | 86 | 45¢ → 46¢ | $39 | +$1 +1.5% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 100d | Yes | 73 | 46¢ → 54¢ | $39 | +$6 +17% |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 102 | 49¢ → 36¢ | $37 | −$13 −26% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 68d | Yes | 88 | 40¢ → 41¢ | $36 | +$0 +1.2% |
| Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Ends ended | Yes | 50 | 55¢ → 72¢ | $36 | +$8 +30% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 222 | 18¢ → 16¢ | $36 | −$4 −11% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 434d | Yes | 172 | 19¢ → 20¢ | $34 | +$2 +5.0% |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 106 | 73¢ → 30¢ | $32 | −$45 −59% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d | Yes | 66 | 44¢ → 46¢ | $31 | +$1 +4.9% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 146 | 15¢ → 21¢ | $30 | +$8 +37% |
| Will Jaroslav Polaček win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?Ends in 15h | No | 33 | 69¢ → 88¢ | $29 | +$6 +28% |
| Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 29 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $29 | +$0 +0.2% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Ends ended | No | 38 | 75¢ → 75¢ | $28 | −$0 −0.7% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 151 | 18¢ → 19¢ | $28 | +$1 +2.8% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 119 | 66¢ → 23¢ | $27 | −$51 −65% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 605 | 14¢ → 4¢ | $27 | −$56 −67% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 5d | Yes | 31 | 75¢ → 86¢ | $26 | +$3 +14% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 114 | 30¢ → 23¢ | $26 | −$8 −25% |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 29 | 84¢ → 88¢ | $25 | +$1 +4.8% |
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Ends ended | No | 165 | 31¢ → 14¢ | $24 | −$27 −53% |
| Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 26 | 90¢ → 91¢ | $23 | +$0 +0.8% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?Ends in 8d | No | 31 | 66¢ → 69¢ | $21 | +$1 +3.8% |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Ends in 434d | Yes | 96 | 27¢ → 22¢ | $21 | −$5 −20% |
| Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?Ends ended | Yes | 162 | 26¢ → 12¢ | $19 | −$23 −54% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 20 | 98¢ → 96¢ | $19 | −$0 −2.3% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 26 | 77¢ → 68¢ | $18 | −$2 −12% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?Ends in 4d | Yes | 118 | 51¢ → 14¢ | $17 | −$44 −72% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 11d | Yes | 59 | 34¢ → 28¢ | $17 | −$3 −15% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?Ends in 434d | No | 20 | 75¢ → 79¢ | $16 | +$1 +5.3% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d | Yes | 96 | 19¢ → 17¢ | $16 | −$2 −13% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 2d | Yes | 54 | 46¢ → 28¢ | $15 | −$10 −39% |
| Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?Ends in 11d | No | 18 | 85¢ → 85¢ | $15 | −$0 −0.9% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 295 | 18¢ → 5¢ | $15 | −$38 −72% |
| Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Ends ended | No | 19 | 58¢ → 73¢ | $14 | +$3 +25% |
