| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in October?Ends in 9d | No | 52 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $50 | +$0 +0.4% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Ends in 39d | No | 42 | 54¢ → 89¢ | $37 | +$14 +63% |
| Will Priyan Samarakoone win the next Vancouver-Yaletown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?Ends in 2d | No | 30 | 98¢ → >99¢ | $30 | +$0 +1.6% |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 28 | 80¢ → 96¢ | $27 | +$4 +20% |
| Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Ends in 8d | Yes | 44 | 48¢ → 55¢ | $24 | +$3 +14% |
| Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 26M in October?Ends in 8d | No | 20 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $20 | +$1 +3.0% |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 19 | 89¢ → 89¢ | $17 | −$0 −0.5% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?Ends ended | No | 16 | 86¢ → >99¢ | $16 | +$2 +16% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends in 7h | Yes | 17 | 81¢ → 97¢ | $16 | +$3 +20% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 28 | 57¢ → 51¢ | $14 | −$2 −10.0% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 16 | 89¢ → 89¢ | $14 | −$0 −0.6% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 17 | 70¢ → 77¢ | $13 | +$1 +10% |
| Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 14 | 86¢ → 93¢ | $13 | +$1 +7.6% |
| Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?Ends in 4d | Yes | 12 | 66¢ → 94¢ | $11 | +$3 +42% |
| Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 11 | 78¢ → >99¢ | $11 | +$2 +28% |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 23, 2026?Ends in 7h | No | 10 | 96¢ → >99¢ | $10 | +$0 +4.0% |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 13 | 66¢ → 78¢ | $10 | +$2 +17% |
| Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 92?Ends in 69d | Yes | 10 | 96¢ → 94¢ | $10 | −$0 −1.7% |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 25?Ends in 3d | No | 9 | 96¢ → 99¢ | $9 | +$0 +2.6% |
| Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 11 | 83¢ → 82¢ | $9 | −$0 −1.2% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 9 | 82¢ → 99¢ | $9 | +$1 +21% |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 10 | 78¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$1 +7.1% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 101d | Yes | 16 | 59¢ → 52¢ | $8 | −$1 −11% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 12d | Yes | 11 | 78¢ → 72¢ | $8 | −$1 −8.3% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 11 | 79¢ → 71¢ | $8 | −$1 −9.3% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 12 | 58¢ → 66¢ | $8 | +$1 +12% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 14 | 40¢ → 50¢ | $7 | +$1 +24% |
| Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 11 | 46¢ → 66¢ | $7 | +$2 +42% |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Ends in 8d | Yes | 14 | 75¢ → 44¢ | $6 | −$5 −42% |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 18 | 26¢ → 34¢ | $6 | +$1 +29% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Ends in 251d | Yes | 6 | 91¢ → 99¢ | $6 | +$0 +8.9% |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $75 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 6 | 91¢ → 99¢ | $6 | +$0 +8.2% |
| Will Z.ai have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 4d | No | 6 | 98¢ → 99¢ | $6 | +$0 +1.5% |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.5T?Ends in 435d | Yes | 7 | 84¢ → 86¢ | $6 | +$0 +1.7% |
| Will Tencent have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 4d | No | 5 | 99¢ → 99¢ | $5 | −$0 −0.4% |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 6 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $5 | +$0 +4.2% |
| Will Qwen have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 4d | No | 5 | 97¢ → 100¢ | $5 | +$0 +2.6% |
| Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 US song this week?Ends in 7h | Yes | 5 | 80¢ → >99¢ | $5 | +$1 +25% |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $60 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 6 | 82¢ → 86¢ | $5 | +$0 +4.3% |
| Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?Ends in 39d | No | 6 | 74¢ → 91¢ | $5 | +$1 +22% |
| Will Martin Ross win the 2026 Markham mayoral election?Ends in 4d | No | 5 | 96¢ → 99¢ | $5 | +$0 +2.9% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 5 | 91¢ → 96¢ | $5 | +$0 +5.5% |
| Will Houthis target Pakistan by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 5 | 96¢ → 98¢ | $5 | +$0 +1.7% |
| Will Frank Scarpitti win the 2026 Markham mayoral election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 5 | 98¢ → 99¢ | $5 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 5 | 82¢ → 92¢ | $5 | +$1 +13% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 5 | 87¢ → 93¢ | $5 | +$0 +6.3% |
| Will Berry Vrbanovic win the 2026 Kitchener mayoral election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 5 | 98¢ → 97¢ | $5 | −$0 −1.2% |
| Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 90?Ends in 69d | Yes | 5 | 96¢ → 94¢ | $5 | −$0 −1.3% |
| Will there be 0 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?Ends in 39d | No | 5 | 99¢ → 96¢ | $5 | −$0 −2.4% |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 5 | 89¢ → 94¢ | $5 | +$0 +5.1% |
| Will Twice release a song in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 6 | 80¢ → 78¢ | $5 | −$0 −3.5% |
| Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 5 | 86¢ → 90¢ | $5 | +$0 +4.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 6 | 75¢ → 79¢ | $4 | +$0 +4.7% |
| Will Iran target Qatar by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 5 | 99¢ → 88¢ | $4 | −$1 −11% |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Ends in 39d | Yes | 6 | 31¢ → 70¢ | $4 | +$2 +126% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 6d | Yes | 5 | 81¢ → 80¢ | $4 | −$0 −1.9% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 12 | 50¢ → 36¢ | $4 | −$2 −28% |
| Will Gordon Zhang win the next Richmond-Steveston British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?Ends in 2d | Yes | 5 | 55¢ → 81¢ | $4 | +$1 +47% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 5 | 86¢ → 82¢ | $4 | −$0 −4.7% |
| Will Olivier Giroud retire before 1 July 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 6 | 50¢ → 72¢ | $4 | +$1 +44% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 5 | 91¢ → 84¢ | $4 | −$0 −8.3% |
| Will Jaime Stein win the next Vancouver-Langara British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?Ends in 2d | Yes | 5 | 65¢ → 84¢ | $4 | +$1 +28% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | No | 5 | 82¢ → 82¢ | $4 | −$0 −0.5% |
| Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?Ends in 101d | Yes | 12 | 49¢ → 34¢ | $4 | −$2 −31% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 6 | 46¢ → 68¢ | $4 | +$1 +47% |
| Will Trump say "Veteran" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?Ends ended | Yes | 6 | 52¢ → 67¢ | $4 | +$1 +29% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 26 | 12¢ → 15¢ | $4 | +$1 +25% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 6 | 55¢ → 67¢ | $4 | +$1 +21% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 6 | 56¢ → 67¢ | $4 | +$1 +19% |
| Will Trump say "Meat" or "Steak" during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?Ends ended | Yes | 6 | 65¢ → 65¢ | $4 | −$0 −0.8% |
| Will Sandra Hüller be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 143d | Yes | 6 | 54¢ → 63¢ | $4 | +$1 +16% |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 5 | 83¢ → 71¢ | $4 | −$1 −15% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 5 | 77¢ → 68¢ | $4 | −$0 −12% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 6 | 73¢ → 62¢ | $3 | −$1 −15% |
| Will "Once Upon a Time in Harlem" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 143d | Yes | 6 | 63¢ → 59¢ | $3 | −$0 −6.9% |
| Will AP call US House control by November 3, 11:59 PM?Ends in 12d | No | 5 | 79¢ → 62¢ | $3 | −$1 −22% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | No | 6 | 52¢ → 47¢ | $3 | −$0 −8.4% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 5 | 69¢ → 54¢ | $3 | −$1 −22% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 6 | 51¢ → 47¢ | $3 | −$0 −8.8% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 6 | 46¢ → 49¢ | $3 | +$0 +6.5% |
| Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 5 | 40¢ → 45¢ | $2 | +$0 +12% |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 7 | 33¢ → 38¢ | $2 | +$0 +14% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 7 | 26¢ → 35¢ | $2 | +$1 +36% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 6 | 41¢ → 37¢ | $2 | −$0 −11% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 12d | No | 7 | 22¢ → 28¢ | $2 | +$0 +30% |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 6 | 23¢ → 36¢ | $2 | +$1 +57% |
| Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?Ends in 7h | Yes | 7 | 30¢ → 30¢ | $2 | $0 0.0% |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 6 | 41¢ → 31¢ | $2 | −$1 −26% |
| Will Warsh say "Price" 30+ times during October Press Conference?Ends in 5d | No | 5 | 39¢ → 34¢ | $2 | −$0 −13% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 2d | No | 14 | 22¢ → 13¢ | $2 | −$1 −43% |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Ends in 39d | No | 6 | 73¢ → 30¢ | $2 | −$2 −59% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 8 | 24¢ → 22¢ | $2 | −$0 −10% |
| Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?Ends in 101d | Yes | 2 | 72¢ → 81¢ | $2 | +$0 +12% |
| Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 94?Ends in 69d | No | 15 | 7¢ → 11¢ | $2 | +$1 +54% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Ends in 70d | Yes | 6 | 28¢ → 25¢ | $1 | −$0 −11% |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 9d | Yes | 38 | 48¢ → 4¢ | $1 | −$17 −92% |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 6 | 30¢ → 21¢ | $1 | −$1 −30% |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 6 | 18¢ → 20¢ | $1 | +$0 +6.5% |
| Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 92?Ends in 69d | No | 20 | 5¢ → 6¢ | $1 | +$0 +17% |
| Will Moe Comuzzi win the 2026 Thunder Bay mayoral election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 5 | 31¢ → 23¢ | $1 | −$0 −27% |
