| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | No | 238 | 68¢ → 73¢ | $172 | +$10 +5.9% |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 12d | Yes | 143 | 90¢ → 97¢ | $138 | +$9 +7.2% |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 79 | 99¢ → 98¢ | $78 | −$0 −0.6% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 121 | 63¢ → 64¢ | $77 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?Ends in 8d | Yes | 273 | 22¢ → 24¢ | $66 | +$5 +8.8% |
| Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027?Ends in 189d | Yes | 57 | 77¢ → 89¢ | $50 | +$7 +16% |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 61 | 61¢ → 69¢ | $42 | +$5 +12% |
| Next Gemini Argon released by January 31, 2027?Ends in 100d | No | 58 | 59¢ → 71¢ | $41 | +$7 +20% |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 101 | 78¢ → 32¢ | $32 | −$47 −60% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?Ends ended | No | 27 | 93¢ → >99¢ | $27 | +$2 +7.8% |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 34 | 69¢ → 75¢ | $25 | +$2 +7.8% |
| Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?Ends ended | Yes | 25 | 78¢ → 99¢ | $25 | +$5 +26% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 36 | 63¢ → 64¢ | $23 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 31 | 56¢ → 68¢ | $21 | +$4 +21% |
| Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 3d | Yes | 29 | 58¢ → 68¢ | $19 | +$3 +17% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 21 | 89¢ → 92¢ | $19 | +$1 +2.8% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Ends in 19h | Yes | 27 | 68¢ → 70¢ | $19 | +$1 +3.2% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?Ends in 19h | No | 19 | 87¢ → 98¢ | $19 | +$2 +13% |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 17 | 97¢ → 98¢ | $16 | +$0 +1.5% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 YouTube ads revenue be above $11.8B?Ends in 4d | No | 19 | 88¢ → 86¢ | $16 | −$0 −2.8% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 238 | 7¢ → 7¢ | $16 | −$1 −5.1% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-49 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 16 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $15 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | Yes | 24 | 45¢ → 57¢ | $14 | +$3 +28% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 22 | 59¢ → 59¢ | $13 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 93 | 13¢ → 14¢ | $13 | +$0 +3.8% |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 15 | 54¢ → 78¢ | $12 | +$4 +45% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 14 | 60¢ → 82¢ | $11 | +$3 +37% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly praise Warren Buffett by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 63 | 18¢ → 18¢ | $11 | −$0 −0.6% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 11 | 72¢ → 86¢ | $10 | +$2 +19% |
| Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 98¢ → 97¢ | $10 | −$0 −0.1% |
| Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | No | 12 | 77¢ → 79¢ | $9 | +$0 +1.9% |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 15 | 63¢ → 62¢ | $9 | −$0 −2.4% |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027?Ends in 342d | Yes | 15 | 65¢ → 62¢ | $9 | −$0 −4.6% |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 314 | 3¢ → 3¢ | $9 | +$0 +1.9% |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 13 | 53¢ → 69¢ | $9 | +$2 +29% |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 13 | 27¢ → 64¢ | $8 | +$5 +139% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 11 | 82¢ → 77¢ | $8 | −$1 −6.7% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 12 | 42¢ → 65¢ | $8 | +$3 +55% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 12 | 63¢ → 66¢ | $8 | +$0 +4.0% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 12 | 63¢ → 62¢ | $8 | −$0 −2.4% |
| Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 3d | Yes | 8 | 59¢ → 90¢ | $7 | +$3 +52% |
| Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?Ends in 11d | No | 16 | 41¢ → 45¢ | $7 | +$1 +9.8% |
| Will the median home value in NYC be at least $510,000 on December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 8 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $7 | +$0 +4.9% |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 19 | 29¢ → 39¢ | $7 | +$2 +33% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 19 | 29¢ → 36¢ | $7 | +$1 +26% |
| Will Warsh say "Payroll" during October Press Conference?Ends in 4d | Yes | 18 | 33¢ → 38¢ | $7 | +$1 +15% |
| Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 7 | 96¢ → 97¢ | $7 | +$0 +1.5% |
| Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?Ends in 11d | Yes | 8 | 85¢ → 81¢ | $6 | −$0 −5.3% |
| Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 20 | 26¢ → 31¢ | $6 | +$1 +17% |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 7 | 92¢ → 92¢ | $6 | −$0 −0.7% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?Ends in 11d | Yes | 17 | 27¢ → 34¢ | $6 | +$1 +26% |
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?Ends in 11d | No | 6 | 85¢ → 86¢ | $6 | +$0 +1.2% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?Ends in 2d | Yes | 33 | 20¢ → 17¢ | $5 | −$1 −19% |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?Ends in 11d | No | 9 | 63¢ → 62¢ | $5 | −$0 −1.6% |
| Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be below 0%?Ends in 40d | No | 6 | 73¢ → 82¢ | $5 | +$1 +12% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 15 | 42¢ → 35¢ | $5 | −$1 −17% |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 5 | 95¢ → 95¢ | $5 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly praise Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 26 | 19¢ → 19¢ | $5 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 6 | 89¢ → 86¢ | $5 | −$0 −3.5% |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 8 | 65¢ → 62¢ | $5 | −$0 −3.9% |
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 36d | No | 8 | 63¢ → 63¢ | $5 | +$0 +1.3% |
| Will Warsh say "Conflict" or "Middle East" during October Press Conference?Ends in 4d | Yes | 7 | 63¢ → 64¢ | $5 | +$0 +1.6% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 9 | 46¢ → 47¢ | $4 | +$0 +2.2% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 18 | 22¢ → 24¢ | $4 | +$0 +6.8% |
| Will the Democrats win Washoe County in the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 5 | 71¢ → 86¢ | $4 | +$1 +21% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 6 | 58¢ → 68¢ | $4 | +$1 +16% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 12 | 45¢ → 36¢ | $4 | −$1 −20% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 6 | 67¢ → 70¢ | $4 | +$0 +3.7% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 4 | 84¢ → 83¢ | $4 | −$0 −1.8% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 20 | 38¢ → 19¢ | $4 | −$4 −51% |
| Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?Ends in 159d | No | 9 | 29¢ → 39¢ | $4 | +$1 +33% |
| Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 5 | 68¢ → 67¢ | $4 | −$0 −2.2% |
| Will Harj Dhaliwal win the next Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?Ends in 19h | Yes | 5 | 53¢ → 66¢ | $3 | +$1 +24% |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 5 | 62¢ → 62¢ | $3 | −$0 −0.8% |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?Ends ended | Yes | 13 | 28¢ → 26¢ | $3 | −$0 −8.9% |
| Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?Ends in 11d | No | 6 | 55¢ → 56¢ | $3 | +$0 +2.7% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?Ends in 128d | Yes | 9 | 39¢ → 35¢ | $3 | −$0 −12% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 3 | 80¢ → 94¢ | $3 | +$0 +17% |
| Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 27 | 45¢ → 11¢ | $3 | −$9 −76% |
| Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 9 | 17¢ → 27¢ | $3 | +$1 +59% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 30 | 14¢ → 9¢ | $3 | −$2 −39% |
| Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 46 | 7¢ → 5¢ | $2 | −$1 −26% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-10 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 3 | 81¢ → 83¢ | $2 | +$0 +2.5% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d | Yes | 13 | 18¢ → 17¢ | $2 | −$0 −8.3% |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | Yes | 6 | 29¢ → 31¢ | $2 | +$0 +6.9% |
| Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 20 | 13¢ → 9¢ | $2 | −$1 −33% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 9 | 27¢ → 20¢ | $2 | −$1 −28% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 19 | 16¢ → 9¢ | $2 | −$1 −47% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 18 | 21¢ → 8¢ | $1 | −$2 −62% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?Ends in 4d | Yes | 7 | 52¢ → 18¢ | $1 | −$3 −65% |
| Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?Ends in 11d | Yes | 2 | 65¢ → 68¢ | $1 | +$0 +4.6% |
| Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Ends in 19h | No | 9 | 51¢ → 15¢ | $1 | −$3 −71% |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 14 | 28¢ → 10¢ | $1 | −$3 −66% |
| Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 368 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$0 −0.3% |
| SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 43 | 5¢ → 3¢ | $1 | −$1 −51% |
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d | Yes | 192 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $1 | +$0 +83% |
| Will NYC have between 3 and 4.25 inches of precipitation in October?Ends in 76d | Yes | 34 | 48¢ → 3¢ | $1 | −$15 −94% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 40 | 3¢ → 2¢ | $1 | −$0 −31% |
| Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 29 | 7¢ → 3¢ | $1 | −$1 −55% |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 23 | 8¢ → 4¢ | $1 | −$1 −53% |
