| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?Ends in 12d | No | 326 | 77¢ → 91¢ | $297 | +$47 +19% |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 163 | 31¢ → 82¢ | $133 | +$83 +165% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 140 | 36¢ → 84¢ | $117 | +$67 +134% |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 562 | 44¢ → 20¢ | $110 | −$140 −56% |
| Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 98 | 51¢ → 73¢ | $72 | +$22 +43% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Ends in 73d | Yes | 89 | 56¢ → 77¢ | $68 | +$18 +36% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 28?Ends ended | No | 149 | 13¢ → 45¢ | $67 | +$47 +235% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 11d | No | 73 | 69¢ → 91¢ | $66 | +$16 +33% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Ends in 104d | Yes | 76 | 66¢ → 88¢ | $66 | +$16 +33% |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 190 | 53¢ → 34¢ | $64 | −$36 −36% |
| Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 93 | 54¢ → 67¢ | $62 | +$12 +24% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 15d | Yes | 94 | 53¢ → 63¢ | $59 | +$9 +17% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 20?Ends ended | No | 58 | 87¢ → 84¢ | $48 | −$2 −3.8% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 25?Ends ended | No | 79 | 13¢ → 56¢ | $44 | +$34 +336% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 28?Ends ended | No | 75 | 66¢ → 58¢ | $44 | −$6 −13% |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 62 | 41¢ → 71¢ | $43 | +$18 +74% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 24?Ends ended | No | 95 | 21¢ → 44¢ | $42 | +$22 +110% |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 76 | 33¢ → 51¢ | $39 | +$14 +56% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026?Ends ended | No | 56 | 89¢ → 60¢ | $33 | −$17 −33% |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027?Ends in 73d | No | 126 | 20¢ → 27¢ | $33 | +$8 +33% |
| Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?Ends in 12d | No | 40 | 63¢ → 83¢ | $33 | +$8 +33% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 181d | Yes | 70 | 36¢ → 47¢ | $33 | +$8 +32% |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 303 | 33¢ → 11¢ | $32 | −$68 −68% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 22?Ends ended | No | 59 | 85¢ → 53¢ | $31 | −$19 −38% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?Ends in 132d | Yes | 119 | 21¢ → 26¢ | $30 | +$5 +21% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 24?Ends ended | Yes | 76 | 13¢ → 40¢ | $30 | +$20 +202% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 44 | 57¢ → 68¢ | $30 | +$5 +18% |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 44 | 45¢ → 60¢ | $27 | +$7 +33% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 94 | 32¢ → 28¢ | $26 | −$4 −13% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Ends in 224d | Yes | 54 | 46¢ → 46¢ | $25 | −$0 −1.1% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 8d | Yes | 86 | 29¢ → 28¢ | $25 | −$0 −1.7% |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 80 | 19¢ → 31¢ | $25 | +$10 +64% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 50d | No | 30 | 33¢ → 81¢ | $24 | +$14 +144% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 21?Ends ended | No | 84 | 24¢ → 28¢ | $23 | +$3 +17% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 71 | 35¢ → 33¢ | $23 | −$2 −7.1% |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-04 House election?Ends in 15d | Yes | 103 | 1¢ → 22¢ | $23 | +$22 +2195% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?Ends in 73d | Yes | 170 | 29¢ → 13¢ | $22 | −$28 −56% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 42d | No | 57 | 44¢ → 39¢ | $22 | −$3 −12% |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 39 | 65¢ → 56¢ | $21 | −$4 −14% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 29?Ends ended | No | 112 | 18¢ → 17¢ | $19 | −$1 −5.1% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?Ends in 6d | Yes | 23 | 87¢ → 80¢ | $18 | −$2 −8.0% |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 78 | 32¢ → 24¢ | $18 | −$7 −27% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 8d | Yes | 38 | 13¢ → 47¢ | $18 | +$13 +256% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 65 | 38¢ → 26¢ | $17 | −$8 −32% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Ends in 438d | Yes | 28 | 36¢ → 56¢ | $16 | +$6 +56% |
| US recession by end of 2027?Ends in 437d | Yes | 43 | 23¢ → 35¢ | $15 | +$5 +52% |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 25 | 41¢ → 62¢ | $15 | +$5 +52% |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 34 | 15¢ → 44¢ | $15 | +$10 +197% |
| Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 52 | 19¢ → 28¢ | $15 | +$5 +48% |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 697 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $14 | +$4 +43% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 28?Ends ended | Yes | 34 | 60¢ → 42¢ | $14 | −$6 −30% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 53 | 19¢ → 26¢ | $13 | +$3 +34% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 26?Ends ended | Yes | 29 | 35¢ → 46¢ | $13 | +$3 +32% |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 36 | 28¢ → 36¢ | $13 | +$3 +29% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 92 | 27¢ → 14¢ | $13 | −$12 −49% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 8d | No | 23 | 43¢ → 53¢ | $12 | +$2 +23% |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 40d | No | 30 | 10¢ → 41¢ | $12 | +$9 +305% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 12d | Yes | 266 | 8¢ → 5¢ | $12 | −$8 −40% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 750d | No | 21 | 47¢ → 56¢ | $12 | +$2 +19% |
| Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 15d | Yes | 44 | 22¢ → 27¢ | $12 | +$2 +18% |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?Ends in 72d | No | 26 | 19¢ → 43¢ | $11 | +$6 +126% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Ends in 57d | No | 42 | 24¢ → 27¢ | $11 | +$1 +13% |
| Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Ends in 40d | No | 33 | 9¢ → 34¢ | $11 | +$8 +272% |
| AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?Ends in 254d | Yes | 56 | 18¢ → 20¢ | $11 | +$1 +8.3% |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 14 | 7¢ → 75¢ | $11 | +$10 +964% |
| Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?Ends in 83d | Yes | 200 | <1¢ → 5¢ | $11 | +$10 +960% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?Ends in 104d | Yes | 129 | 8¢ → 8¢ | $10 | −$1 −6.0% |
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?Ends in 438d | No | 29 | 34¢ → 34¢ | $10 | −$0 −1.5% |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 42d | No | 22 | 23¢ → 45¢ | $10 | +$5 +93% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Ends in 5d | No | 29 | 35¢ → 33¢ | $9 | −$1 −5.0% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 31 | 32¢ → 30¢ | $9 | −$1 −7.5% |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 56 | 9¢ → 17¢ | $9 | +$4 +83% |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?Ends in 72d | Yes | 30 | 33¢ → 30¢ | $9 | −$1 −11% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 65 | 19¢ → 13¢ | $8 | −$4 −35% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 61 | 16¢ → 13¢ | $8 | −$2 −20% |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 67 | 15¢ → 12¢ | $8 | −$2 −20% |
| Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?Ends in 40d | No | 30 | 10¢ → 27¢ | $8 | +$5 +165% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 48 | 21¢ → 17¢ | $8 | −$2 −21% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Ends in 133d | No | 43 | 47¢ → 18¢ | $8 | −$12 −61% |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 38 | 26¢ → 20¢ | $8 | −$2 −23% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 15d | Yes | 28 | 36¢ → 28¢ | $8 | −$2 −24% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 50d | No | 33 | 30¢ → 23¢ | $8 | −$2 −24% |
| Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by October 31?Ends in 12d | No | 65 | 8¢ → 11¢ | $7 | +$2 +47% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 75 | 8¢ → 10¢ | $7 | +$1 +19% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?Ends in 254d | Yes | 83 | 12¢ → 9¢ | $7 | −$3 −29% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 73d | Yes | 20 | 25¢ → 35¢ | $7 | +$2 +41% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 72d | No | 17 | 30¢ → 42¢ | $7 | +$2 +40% |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?Ends in 15d | No | 38 | 26¢ → 18¢ | $7 | −$3 −31% |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 46 | 22¢ → 14¢ | $7 | −$3 −33% |
| Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 21, 2026?Ends ended | No | 79 | 13¢ → 8¢ | $7 | −$3 −33% |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 20 | 25¢ → 34¢ | $7 | +$2 +34% |
| Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by October 31?Ends in 12d | No | 38 | 8¢ → 18¢ | $7 | +$4 +122% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 26 | 38¢ → 26¢ | $7 | −$3 −34% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 42d | Yes | 33 | 30¢ → 20¢ | $7 | −$3 −35% |
| Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 26 | 19¢ → 25¢ | $6 | +$1 +29% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 25 | 20¢ → 25¢ | $6 | +$1 +26% |
| Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 132 | 9¢ → 5¢ | $6 | −$6 −50% |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 53 | 19¢ → 12¢ | $6 | −$4 −38% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 77 | 33¢ → 8¢ | $6 | −$19 −75% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 20 | 50¢ → 30¢ | $6 | −$4 −40% |
