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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2028 | 16% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 15¢ · 16¢ (1¢) | $43K | in 799d |
| December 31, 2029 | 20% | +2 pts | −2 pts | 19¢ · 21¢ (2¢) | $22.9K | in 1164d |
| December 31, 2027 | 9% | +2 pts | +1 pts | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | $5.91K | in 433d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29m |  bigdihhh8882 fills | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo86¢ → 85¢ | $2,100 | −$48 −2.3% | 22 |
| 3h |  Lolakis | December 31, 2029 | SellYes18¢ → 20¢ | $2,841 | −$258 −9.1% | — |
| 3h | WarriorH | December 31, 2029 | BuyNo81¢ → 80¢ | $1,537 | −$19 −1.2% | 23 |
| 3h | hfv | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo86¢ → 85¢ | $1,183 | −$21 −1.7% | 21 |
| 3h | Lolakis | December 31, 2028 | SellYes15¢ → 16¢ | $2,574 | −$97 −3.8% | — |
| 5h |  Car2 fills | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $10,487 | +$62 +0.6% | 30 |
| 4d | Car2 fills | December 31, 2029 | BuyNo80¢ | $16,018 | −$23 −0.1% | 33 |
| 4d | Car5 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo92¢ | $25,513 | −$1 −0.0% | 26 |
| 11d | Lolakis | December 31, 2028 | BuyYes16¢ | $2,118 | −$66 −3.1% | 29 |
| 11d | Lolakis | December 31, 2029 | BuyYes19¢ → 20¢ | $1,957 | +$103 +5.3% | 31 |
| 16d |  MEPP | December 31, 2027 | SellNo92¢ | $5,212 | +$28 +0.5% | — |
| 19d | jcsberger | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ → 92¢ | $1,163 | −$19 −1.6% | 24 |
| 20d |  rewardbots | December 31, 2027 | SellYes7¢ → 9¢ | $1,481 | −$317 −21% | — |
| 20d |  Dragontree | December 31, 2027 | SellYes8¢ → 9¢ | $3,137 | −$92 −2.9% | — |
| 20d | bigdihhh888 | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ → 92¢ | $1,128 | −$18 −1.6% | 24 |
| 21d | WarriorH | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo85¢ | $1,299 | −$0 −0.0% | 21 |
| 21d | MEPP | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo88¢ → 92¢ | $4,929 | +$196 +4.0% | 28 |
| 21d | NoSteinNoGate | December 31, 2029 | BuyYes20¢ | $1,000 | $0 0.0% | 23 |
| 21d | Lolakis | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo86¢ → 92¢ | $1,560 | +$100 +6.4% | 29 |
| 21d | Dragontree | December 31, 2027 | BuyYes9¢ | $3,347 | −$117 −3.5% | 49 |
| 21d | rewardbots | December 31, 2027 | BuyYes7¢ → 9¢ | $1,176 | +$252 +21% | 37 |
| 24d | MirAsifAhr | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ → 92¢ | $1,432 | −$23 −1.6% | 25 |
| 34d |  DFK | December 31, 2027 | SellNo92¢ | $7,360 | +$40 +0.5% | — |
| 36d | DFK2 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ → 92¢ | $7,440 | −$120 −1.6% | 25 |
| 36d |  StarMaster | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ → 92¢ | $1,860 | −$30 −1.6% | 25 |
| 36d |  0xdc3E831cad | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo92¢ | $4,149 | −$23 −0.5% | 25 |
Haradwaith228 sharesCar14,309 shares
PaddyAlpha500 shares
PMTraderAdam400 shares
Tenebrus7258 shares
PConsensus179 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 16¢ for December 31, 2028 means the market gives it about 16%.