| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 1,150 | 82¢ → 84¢ | $960 | +$21 +2.2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 600 | 93¢ → 92¢ | $549 | −$7 −1.2% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 500 | 92¢ → 94¢ | $468 | +$6 +1.2% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 526d | No | 400 | 80¢ → 84¢ | $337 | +$19 +6.0% |
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 350 | 86¢ → 95¢ | $332 | +$31 +10% |
| US recession by end of 2026?Ends in 100d | No | 350 | 91¢ → 93¢ | $324 | +$5 +1.6% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 370 | 73¢ → 87¢ | $320 | +$51 +19% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 350 | 60¢ → 86¢ | $301 | +$92 +44% |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?Ends in 70d | No | 250 | 92¢ → 97¢ | $241 | +$10 +4.4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 200 | 89¢ → 98¢ | $196 | +$18 +9.9% |
| No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 200 | 77¢ → 97¢ | $195 | +$41 +27% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 240 | 76¢ → 78¢ | $187 | +$4 +2.2% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 200 | 91¢ → 94¢ | $187 | +$5 +3.0% |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 526d | Yes | 200 | 64¢ → 82¢ | $163 | +$35 +27% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 200 | 78¢ → 80¢ | $159 | +$3 +2.2% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 150 | 92¢ → 96¢ | $145 | +$7 +4.8% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 150 | 91¢ → 96¢ | $144 | +$8 +6.0% |
| Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 150 | 91¢ → 96¢ | $144 | +$8 +5.7% |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 150 | 92¢ → 96¢ | $143 | +$5 +3.7% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 150 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $142 | +$8 +5.9% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 160 | 88¢ → 88¢ | $141 | +$0 +0.2% |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 150 | 80¢ → 92¢ | $137 | +$17 +14% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 12d | Yes | 200 | 47¢ → 68¢ | $135 | +$40 +42% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 12d | Yes | 150 | 83¢ → 90¢ | $135 | +$10 +7.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 150 | 76¢ → 89¢ | $133 | +$19 +17% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Ends in 435d | Yes | 240 | 48¢ → 54¢ | $130 | +$14 +12% |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 130 | 91¢ → 96¢ | $125 | +$7 +6.2% |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?Ends in 70d | No | 136 | 91¢ → 89¢ | $121 | −$2 −1.9% |
| AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 150 | 81¢ → 80¢ | $119 | −$2 −1.9% |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 150 | 47¢ → 67¢ | $101 | +$30 +43% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 100 | 98¢ → 99¢ | $99 | +$1 +1.3% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 100 | 92¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$4 +4.6% |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 100 | 92¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$4 +4.6% |
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?Ends in 70d | No | 100 | 81¢ → 96¢ | $96 | +$15 +18% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 100 | 89¢ → 95¢ | $95 | +$6 +7.0% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 100 | 81¢ → 94¢ | $94 | +$12 +15% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseEnds in 12d | No | 100 | 92¢ → 93¢ | $93 | +$1 +0.5% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 100 | 83¢ → 92¢ | $92 | +$9 +11% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 100 | 81¢ → 85¢ | $85 | +$3 +4.2% |
| Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 38d | No | 260 | 18¢ → 25¢ | $64 | +$17 +35% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 70 | 70¢ → 78¢ | $54 | +$5 +10% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 12d | Yes | 200 | 34¢ → 26¢ | $51 | −$17 −25% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 50 | 90¢ → 98¢ | $49 | +$4 +9.2% |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 50 | 88¢ → 98¢ | $49 | +$5 +11% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 50 | 75¢ → 92¢ | $46 | +$8 +23% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 80 | 48¢ → 55¢ | $44 | +$5 +14% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 38d | No | 60 | 59¢ → 63¢ | $38 | +$2 +5.9% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 40 | 87¢ → 91¢ | $36 | +$1 +4.1% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 5d | No | 50 | 72¢ → 71¢ | $35 | −$1 −2.1% |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | No | 40 | 80¢ → 82¢ | $33 | +$1 +2.8% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 50 | 48¢ → 64¢ | $32 | +$8 +35% |
| Will KAST launch a token by December 31, 2027?Ends in 435d | No | 50 | 58¢ → 62¢ | $31 | +$2 +6.0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 65 | 55¢ → 47¢ | $30 | −$5 −15% |
| Panama Canal effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 30 | 97¢ → 99¢ | $30 | +$1 +1.9% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Ends in 101d | No | 30 | 93¢ → 95¢ | $28 | +$0 +1.7% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 41% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 40 | 57¢ → 67¢ | $27 | +$4 +18% |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 130 | 24¢ → 20¢ | $26 | −$5 −17% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 30 | 82¢ → 85¢ | $25 | +$1 +3.6% |
| US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 20 | 86¢ → 96¢ | $19 | +$2 +12% |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?Ends in 70d | No | 20 | 86¢ → 96¢ | $19 | +$2 +11% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 23, 2026?Ends in 12h | No | 20 | 69¢ → 95¢ | $19 | +$5 +38% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 2d | Yes | 20 | 76¢ → 94¢ | $19 | +$3 +23% |
| Plague case in US by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 20 | 90¢ → 93¢ | $19 | +$1 +2.8% |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 20 | 80¢ → 91¢ | $18 | +$2 +14% |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 20 | 78¢ → 91¢ | $18 | +$3 +16% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 40 | 51¢ → 44¢ | $17 | −$3 −15% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 37% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | Yes | 20 | 78¢ → 85¢ | $17 | +$1 +9.4% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 42% by June 30, 2027?Ends in 251d | No | 20 | 69¢ → 83¢ | $17 | +$3 +20% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 20 | 77¢ → 81¢ | $16 | +$1 +4.5% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 20 | 80¢ → 80¢ | $16 | $0 0.0% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 39d | No | 20 | 70¢ → 79¢ | $16 | +$2 +13% |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 20 | 70¢ → 74¢ | $15 | +$1 +5.8% |
| Will voter turnout be less than 62% in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 38d | No | 15 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $15 | +$1 +4.7% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 20 | 67¢ → 73¢ | $15 | +$1 +9.8% |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 40 | 51¢ → 36¢ | $14 | −$6 −31% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Ends in 160d | No | 20 | 66¢ → 63¢ | $13 | −$1 −5.3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?Ends in 313d | Yes | 20 | 58¢ → 60¢ | $12 | +$0 +3.4% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Ends in 17d | Yes | 20 | 56¢ → 59¢ | $12 | +$1 +5.4% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 13d | No | 20 | 64¢ → 59¢ | $12 | −$1 −7.8% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?Ends in 101d | Yes | 150 | 6¢ → 8¢ | $11 | +$2 +18% |
| Will Stephanie Cameron win the next Meander Valley mayoral election?Ends in 5d | Yes | 20 | 56¢ → 56¢ | $11 | $0 0.0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Ends in 221d | Yes | 20 | 47¢ → 51¢ | $10 | +$1 +7.4% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 30 | 40¢ → 34¢ | $10 | −$2 −15% |
| Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 20 | 38¢ → 49¢ | $10 | +$2 +28% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$2 +34% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Ends in 38d | Yes | 20 | 66¢ → 48¢ | $10 | −$4 −27% |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 10 | 83¢ → 90¢ | $9 | +$1 +8.4% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% in 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 10 | 90¢ → 89¢ | $9 | −$0 −1.2% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Ends in 39d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 89¢ | $9 | +$4 +65% |
| Anthropic announces a training pause by October 31?Ends in 9d | No | 10 | 71¢ → 87¢ | $9 | +$2 +22% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?Ends in 39d | Yes | 8 | 84¢ → >99¢ | $8 | +$1 +19% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Ends in 39d | Yes | 150 | 14¢ → 6¢ | $8 | −$13 −62% |
| Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 10 | 70¢ → 80¢ | $8 | +$1 +15% |
| Will voter turnout be 70% or higher in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 38d | Yes | 20 | 17¢ → 40¢ | $8 | +$5 +137% |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 20?Ends ended | No | 9 | 90¢ → 84¢ | $8 | −$1 −6.7% |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 20 | 53¢ → 38¢ | $8 | −$3 −28% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 9d | Yes | 100 | 13¢ → 7¢ | $7 | −$6 −45% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?Ends in 343d | No | 20 | 41¢ → 37¢ | $7 | −$1 −9.8% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?Ends in 434d | Yes | 200 | 6¢ → 3¢ | $7 | −$6 −45% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?Ends in 434d | Yes | 150 | 5¢ → 5¢ | $7 | −$0 −6.8% |
