| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 800d | Yes | 10,396 | 15¢ → 30¢ | $3,067 | +$1,479 +93% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 2,783 | 41¢ → >99¢ | $2,779 | +$1,631 +142% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 1d | Yes | 2,632 | 76¢ → 89¢ | $2,342 | +$342 +17% |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | No | 1,910 | 81¢ → 82¢ | $1,561 | +$14 +0.9% |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 1,667 | 60¢ → 87¢ | $1,451 | +$450 +45% |
| Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Ends in 158d | No | 1,332 | 50¢ → 95¢ | $1,266 | +$601 +90% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 23d | No | 1,658 | 44¢ → 57¢ | $954 | +$224 +31% |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 1,044 | 71¢ → 86¢ | $898 | +$157 +21% |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 2d | Yes | 6,250 | 16¢ → 14¢ | $844 | −$156 −16% |
| Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?Ends in 250d | No | 1,235 | 50¢ → 66¢ | $809 | +$191 +31% |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 22,511 | 3¢ → 3¢ | $777 | +$146 +23% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 1,022 | 72¢ → 75¢ | $766 | +$34 +4.7% |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Ends in 128d | No | 797 | 18¢ → 94¢ | $746 | +$603 +422% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 11d | Yes | 979 | 71¢ → 68¢ | $661 | −$34 −4.9% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 917 | 64¢ → 63¢ | $573 | −$14 −2.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 767 | 31¢ → 66¢ | $506 | +$267 +111% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends ended | Yes | 515 | 65¢ → 97¢ | $502 | +$165 +49% |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 492 | 74¢ → >99¢ | $490 | +$128 +36% |
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?Ends in 159d | No | 500 | 3¢ → 93¢ | $466 | +$450 +2814% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,742 | 38¢ → 26¢ | $453 | −$209 −32% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 452 | 17¢ → 98¢ | $441 | +$364 +474% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 1,408 | 28¢ → 28¢ | $387 | −$7 −1.8% |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Ends in 100d | No | 340 | 44¢ → 96¢ | $326 | +$176 +117% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 560 | 52¢ → 57¢ | $322 | +$31 +11% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 331 | 54¢ → 94¢ | $312 | +$134 +75% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 364 | 61¢ → 79¢ | $287 | +$65 +30% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 1,030 | 45¢ → 26¢ | $268 | −$191 −42% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 69d | No | 316 | 63¢ → 82¢ | $257 | +$59 +30% |
| Will Perplexity launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 291 | 76¢ → 76¢ | $221 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 416 | 35¢ → 51¢ | $212 | +$67 +46% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 275 | 68¢ → 71¢ | $195 | +$8 +4.4% |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 250d | Yes | 445 | 43¢ → 44¢ | $194 | +$2 +1.2% |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?Ends in 2h | Yes | 219 | 61¢ → 84¢ | $182 | +$49 +37% |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,021 | 25¢ → 17¢ | $174 | −$82 −32% |
| Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 1,071 | 15¢ → 16¢ | $171 | +$11 +6.7% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 164 | 83¢ → 95¢ | $155 | +$20 +14% |
| Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?Ends in 37d | No | 242 | 49¢ → 62¢ | $150 | +$31 +27% |
| Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 371 | 40¢ → 39¢ | $145 | −$4 −2.5% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 12d | Yes | 1,687 | 8¢ → 8¢ | $135 | $0 0.0% |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Ends in 800d | No | 204 | 28¢ → 66¢ | $134 | +$77 +134% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 599 | 26¢ → 17¢ | $99 | −$57 −37% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 2,412 | 9¢ → 4¢ | $93 | −$124 −57% |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 434d | No | 147 | 60¢ → 63¢ | $93 | +$4 +5.0% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 499 | 20¢ → 19¢ | $92 | −$7 −7.2% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 266 | 66¢ → 35¢ | $92 | −$84 −48% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 155 | 55¢ → 57¢ | $89 | +$4 +4.5% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?Ends in 69d | Yes | 489 | 32¢ → 16¢ | $78 | −$78 −50% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 5d | No | 340 | 17¢ → 22¢ | $73 | +$15 +26% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 275 | 22¢ → 25¢ | $68 | +$8 +12% |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 662 | 26¢ → 10¢ | $66 | −$106 −62% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 565 | 14¢ → 12¢ | $65 | −$14 −18% |
| Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 78 | 7¢ → 82¢ | $64 | +$58 +1064% |
| Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?Ends in 226d | No | 184 | 50¢ → 33¢ | $60 | −$32 −35% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 168 | 36¢ → 33¢ | $55 | −$6 −9.7% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | Yes | 694 | 24¢ → 7¢ | $45 | −$121 −73% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 241 | 34¢ → 18¢ | $42 | −$39 −48% |
| Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?Ends in 1d | No | 40 | 88¢ → 99¢ | $40 | +$4 +12% |
| Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 98 | 27¢ → 35¢ | $34 | +$8 +30% |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 35 | 42¢ → 92¢ | $32 | +$17 +118% |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 79 | 32¢ → 38¢ | $30 | +$4 +17% |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 85 | 24¢ → 25¢ | $21 | +$0 +2.1% |
| Will John Kelly win the next Hobart mayoral election?Ends in 4d | No | 23 | 43¢ → 79¢ | $18 | +$8 +84% |
| Will Juraj Droba win the 2026 Bratislava Region gubernatorial election?Ends in 1d | No | 661 | 11¢ → 3¢ | $18 | −$56 −76% |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 349 | 22¢ → 4¢ | $14 | −$63 −82% |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Ends in 69d | Yes | 28 | 39¢ → 50¢ | $14 | +$3 +27% |
| Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?Ends ended | Yes | 14 | 6¢ → 91¢ | $13 | +$12 +1421% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 34 | 38¢ → 38¢ | $13 | −$0 −1.3% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 68 | 18¢ → 18¢ | $12 | −$0 −2.8% |
| Will Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?Ends in 226d | Yes | 160 | 11¢ → 7¢ | $12 | −$6 −33% |
| Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?Ends in 69d | No | 11 | 93¢ → 97¢ | $11 | +$0 +4.5% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 46 | 10¢ → 23¢ | $10 | +$6 +126% |
| Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 173 | 24¢ → 6¢ | $10 | −$32 −77% |
| Will Chen Yu-jen win the next Kinmen County Magistrate election?Ends in 36d | No | 210 | 11¢ → 5¢ | $9 | −$14 −59% |
| Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Ends in 176d | Yes | 328 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $8 | +$6 +250% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 9 | 34¢ → 89¢ | $8 | +$5 +164% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 69d | No | 11 | 48¢ → 69¢ | $7 | +$2 +44% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 8 | 72¢ → 85¢ | $7 | +$1 +19% |
| Will Katie Miller be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 434d | Yes | 258 | 1¢ → 3¢ | $7 | +$3 +82% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 131 | 9¢ → 4¢ | $5 | −$6 −54% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 77 | 27¢ → 7¢ | $5 | −$15 −74% |
| Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Ends ended | Yes | 344 | 6¢ → 1¢ | $5 | −$15 −76% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 1d | Yes | 364 | 15¢ → 1¢ | $5 | −$51 −91% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d | Yes | 2 | 8¢ → 98¢ | $2 | +$1 +1124% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 909 | 75¢ → <1¢ | $1 | −$680 −100% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 3 | 27¢ → 31¢ | $1 | +$0 +13% |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?Ends in 69d | Yes | 17 | 5¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$1 −81% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Ends in 8d | Yes | 14 | 6¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$1 −81% |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 25 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$9 −100% |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,404 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$309 −100% |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 91 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$26 −100% |
| Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 357 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 798 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 3,886 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,214 −100% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 101 | 47¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$48 −100% |
| Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,082 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$11 −100% |
| Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,528 | 73¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,121 −100% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 147 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$23 −100% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 59 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$8 −100% |
| Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 418 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
