| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 3d | No | 88 | 57¢ → 72¢ | $63 | +$13 +26% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 4d | No | 72 | 69¢ → 84¢ | $61 | +$11 +21% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 50 | 68¢ → 88¢ | $44 | +$10 +29% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 3d | No | 71 | 70¢ → 59¢ | $42 | −$8 −17% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d | No | 39 | 64¢ → 94¢ | $36 | +$11 +46% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d | Yes | 38 | 54¢ → 94¢ | $35 | +$15 +74% |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 37 | 62¢ → 84¢ | $31 | +$8 +34% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 4d | No | 103 | 37¢ → 23¢ | $24 | −$14 −37% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 47d | Yes | 28 | 27¢ → 74¢ | $20 | +$13 +174% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | No | 86 | 19¢ → 24¢ | $20 | +$4 +25% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Ends ended | No | 25 | 40¢ → 76¢ | $19 | +$9 +90% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 47d | No | 69 | 34¢ → 27¢ | $18 | −$5 −22% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 5d | No | 36 | 52¢ → 51¢ | $18 | −$0 −1.7% |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Ends in 48d | Yes | 24 | 72¢ → 76¢ | $18 | +$1 +4.9% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 24 | 67¢ → 74¢ | $18 | +$2 +9.7% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Ends in 97d | No | 23 | 66¢ → 71¢ | $16 | +$1 +6.9% |
| Will Mina the Hollower win Best Independent Game at the 2026 Game Awards?Ends in 48d | No | 23 | 62¢ → 71¢ | $16 | +$2 +15% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 5d | No | 23 | 55¢ → 70¢ | $16 | +$3 +26% |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Ends in 130d | No | 18 | 71¢ → 85¢ | $15 | +$2 +19% |
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 37d | No | 24 | 68¢ → 63¢ | $15 | −$1 −7.1% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 5d | No | 50 | 50¢ → 31¢ | $15 | −$10 −39% |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 57 | 32¢ → 26¢ | $15 | −$3 −19% |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 747d | Yes | 714 | 0¢ → 2¢ | $15 | +$15 +0.0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 36 | 25¢ → 38¢ | $14 | +$5 +54% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 47d | No | 17 | 58¢ → 77¢ | $13 | +$3 +33% |
| Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?Ends in 227d | Yes | 20 | 53¢ → 68¢ | $13 | +$3 +28% |
| Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 20 | 66¢ → 67¢ | $13 | +$0 +1.5% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 16 | 72¢ → 83¢ | $13 | +$2 +15% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 13 | 76¢ → 88¢ | $12 | +$2 +16% |
| Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 12d | Yes | 17 | 55¢ → 67¢ | $11 | +$2 +21% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 15 | 69¢ → 74¢ | $11 | +$1 +5.8% |
| Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?Ends in 101d | Yes | 23 | 45¢ → 46¢ | $11 | +$0 +3.8% |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 11 | 62¢ → 93¢ | $11 | +$4 +52% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 77 | 23¢ → 14¢ | $10 | −$7 −41% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 47d | Yes | 43 | 25¢ → 23¢ | $10 | −$1 −8.9% |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 37d | No | 26 | 30¢ → 37¢ | $9 | +$2 +20% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?Ends in 70d | No | 11 | 46¢ → 85¢ | $9 | +$4 +84% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 47 | 30¢ → 20¢ | $9 | −$5 −35% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 58 | 34¢ → 16¢ | $9 | −$11 −55% |
| Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election?Ends in 107d | Yes | 15 | 62¢ → 61¢ | $9 | −$0 −2.4% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 64 | 19¢ → 14¢ | $9 | −$3 −28% |
| Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?Ends in 70d | No | 10 | 67¢ → 86¢ | $9 | +$2 +28% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 435d | No | 10 | 69¢ → 86¢ | $8 | +$2 +24% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 16 | 35¢ → 54¢ | $8 | +$3 +51% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Ends in 219d | No | 22 | 55¢ → 38¢ | $8 | −$4 −31% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 51 | 18¢ → 16¢ | $8 | −$1 −12% |
| Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 37 | 20¢ → 20¢ | $7 | −$0 −2.5% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?Ends in 70d | Yes | 45 | 40¢ → 16¢ | $7 | −$11 −61% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 101d | No | 15 | 59¢ → 47¢ | $7 | −$2 −21% |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Ends in 435d | No | 16 | 54¢ → 42¢ | $7 | −$2 −22% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 12d | No | 88 | 12¢ → 8¢ | $7 | −$4 −39% |
| Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 9 | 75¢ → 77¢ | $7 | +$0 +2.4% |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 41 | 63¢ → 16¢ | $7 | −$19 −75% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 39d | Yes | 9 | 66¢ → 72¢ | $6 | +$1 +9.4% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Ends in 97d | No | 19 | 41¢ → 33¢ | $6 | −$2 −20% |
| Will the Democrats win Washoe County in the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 7 | 57¢ → 86¢ | $6 | +$2 +50% |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Ends in 435d | Yes | 8 | 62¢ → 73¢ | $6 | +$1 +18% |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 30 | 22¢ → 20¢ | $6 | −$1 −11% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 37 | 21¢ → 16¢ | $6 | −$2 −27% |
| Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 8 | 72¢ → 75¢ | $6 | +$0 +3.0% |
| Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Ends in 12d | No | 6 | 77¢ → 90¢ | $6 | +$1 +17% |
| Will Lin Kuo-chang win the next Yilan County Magistrate election?Ends in 37d | No | 13 | 45¢ → 40¢ | $5 | −$1 −11% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 47d | Yes | 7 | 67¢ → 74¢ | $5 | +$0 +10% |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 367d | No | 9 | 46¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$1 +15% |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Ends in 435d | No | 8 | 55¢ → 65¢ | $5 | +$1 +18% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 36 | 32¢ → 14¢ | $5 | −$6 −57% |
| Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?Ends in 84d | No | 5 | 74¢ → 97¢ | $5 | +$1 +32% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 12d | Yes | 7 | 58¢ → 68¢ | $5 | +$1 +17% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d | No | 71 | 41¢ → 7¢ | $5 | −$25 −84% |
| Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?Ends in 16d | Yes | 16 | 29¢ → 28¢ | $5 | −$0 −3.6% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Ends in 219d | No | 5 | 75¢ → 85¢ | $5 | +$1 +13% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | Yes | 6 | 18¢ → 76¢ | $4 | +$3 +322% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?Ends in 8d | No | 12 | 72¢ → 36¢ | $4 | −$4 −50% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Ends in 235d | No | 5 | 59¢ → 86¢ | $4 | +$1 +44% |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027?Ends in 70d | Yes | 5 | 76¢ → 86¢ | $4 | +$0 +13% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 7 | 60¢ → 57¢ | $4 | −$0 −4.2% |
| Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?Ends in 16d | Yes | 21 | 27¢ → 20¢ | $4 | −$2 −28% |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 4 | 47¢ → 97¢ | $4 | +$2 +107% |
| Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Ends in 4d | No | 8 | 74¢ → 52¢ | $4 | −$2 −30% |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 16 | 37¢ → 25¢ | $4 | −$2 −32% |
| Will Cilliers Brink be the next mayor of Tshwane?Ends in 13d | Yes | 8 | 61¢ → 50¢ | $4 | −$1 −19% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 47d | Yes | 17 | 15¢ → 24¢ | $4 | +$1 +57% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 39d | No | 14 | 29¢ → 28¢ | $4 | −$0 −2.7% |
| StandX FDV above $50M one day after launch?Ends in 70d | No | 4 | 69¢ → 99¢ | $4 | +$1 +44% |
| Will Jannik Sinner be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP RankingsEnds in 84d | No | 4 | 66¢ → >99¢ | $4 | +$1 +51% |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Ends in 70d | Yes | 5 | 75¢ → 72¢ | $4 | −$0 −4.0% |
| Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Ends in 37d | No | 12 | 29¢ → 32¢ | $4 | +$0 +9.5% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 12d | No | 5 | 74¢ → 75¢ | $4 | +$0 +0.7% |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Ends in 4d | No | 7 | 15¢ → 48¢ | $4 | +$2 +217% |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 5 | 55¢ → 77¢ | $4 | +$1 +39% |
| Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?Ends in 24d | No | 28 | 29¢ → 13¢ | $3 | −$5 −57% |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 4 | 63¢ → 87¢ | $3 | +$1 +37% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 101d | No | 7 | 74¢ → 52¢ | $3 | −$1 −30% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 6 | 41¢ → 56¢ | $3 | +$1 +38% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | Yes | 44 | 9¢ → 8¢ | $3 | −$1 −17% |
| Will Mattias Ottosson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Östergötland?Ends ended | No | 6 | 34¢ → 55¢ | $3 | +$1 +60% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Ends in 101d | No | 6 | 64¢ → 53¢ | $3 | −$1 −17% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?Ends in 11d | No | 4 | 70¢ → 81¢ | $3 | +$0 +16% |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 70d | No | 75 | 11¢ → 4¢ | $3 | −$5 −62% |
| Will Haniff Hoosen be the next mayor of eThekwini?Ends in 13d | Yes | 9 | 22¢ → 33¢ | $3 | +$1 +50% |
