| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Ends in 100d | No | 1,499 | 57¢ → 66¢ | $982 | +$129 +15% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 422 | 40¢ → 77¢ | $323 | +$154 +91% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 15d | No | 849 | 47¢ → 36¢ | $302 | −$94 −24% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 9d | Yes | 355 | 47¢ → 85¢ | $300 | +$134 +81% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 15d | No | 640 | 49¢ → 38¢ | $240 | −$76 −24% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 15d | Yes | 639 | 48¢ → 37¢ | $233 | −$73 −24% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 10d | No | 189 | 67¢ → 98¢ | $184 | +$58 +46% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 9d | No | 210 | 64¢ → 86¢ | $180 | +$45 +33% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 238 | 70¢ → 75¢ | $177 | +$11 +6.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 204 | 76¢ → 87¢ | $176 | +$22 +14% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 230 | 39¢ → 77¢ | $176 | +$86 +97% |
| Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 370d | No | 253 | 60¢ → 69¢ | $173 | +$22 +14% |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 280 | 56¢ → 57¢ | $161 | +$4 +2.5% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 200 | 80¢ → 78¢ | $156 | −$4 −2.3% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 529d | No | 150 | 89¢ → 85¢ | $127 | −$6 −4.8% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 50d | No | 509 | 30¢ → 24¢ | $120 | −$34 −22% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 130 | 80¢ → 92¢ | $119 | +$14 +14% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 180 | 56¢ → 59¢ | $105 | +$4 +4.1% |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 120 | 86¢ → 88¢ | $105 | +$2 +2.3% |
| Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Ends in 28d | Yes | 190 | 53¢ → 54¢ | $102 | +$1 +0.9% |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 111 | 60¢ → 90¢ | $100 | +$33 +49% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 15d | Yes | 349 | 35¢ → 28¢ | $96 | −$26 −21% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Ends in 42d | No | 90 | 85¢ → 94¢ | $84 | +$8 +10% |
| Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Ends in 28d | No | 90 | 79¢ → 93¢ | $83 | +$13 +18% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseEnds in 15d | Yes | 978 | 14¢ → 9¢ | $83 | −$52 −39% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?Ends in 72d | Yes | 2,593 | 23¢ → 3¢ | $67 | −$537 −89% |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 233 | 47¢ → 25¢ | $57 | −$51 −47% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 213 | 53¢ → 27¢ | $57 | −$57 −50% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 41d | No | 90 | 59¢ → 62¢ | $56 | +$3 +5.7% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 1,881 | 53¢ → 3¢ | $55 | −$938 −95% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 181d | No | 100 | 57¢ → 53¢ | $53 | −$4 −6.8% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 75 | 76¢ → 71¢ | $53 | −$4 −7.7% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 70 | 82¢ → 72¢ | $50 | −$7 −13% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Ends in 72d | Yes | 3,645 | 36¢ → 1¢ | $49 | −$1,273 −96% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Ends in 72d | Yes | 2,480 | 69¢ → 2¢ | $48 | −$1,660 −97% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?Ends in 254d | No | 70 | 56¢ → 67¢ | $47 | +$8 +20% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 750d | No | 50 | 92¢ → 91¢ | $45 | −$1 −1.5% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 72d | No | 60 | 65¢ → 71¢ | $42 | +$3 +8.5% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 650 | 8¢ → 7¢ | $42 | −$10 −19% |
| Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 50 | 79¢ → 83¢ | $42 | +$2 +5.6% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 208 | 22¢ → 20¢ | $41 | −$4 −9.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 72d | No | 76 | 38¢ → 51¢ | $38 | +$9 +33% |
| Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 201 | 22¢ → 19¢ | $37 | −$7 −16% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Ends in 42d | Yes | 457 | 9¢ → 8¢ | $37 | −$5 −11% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 90 | 34¢ → 39¢ | $35 | +$4 +12% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 750d | No | 40 | 84¢ → 85¢ | $34 | +$1 +1.9% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 117 | 30¢ → 28¢ | $33 | −$2 −4.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 41d | No | 79 | 34¢ → 42¢ | $33 | +$6 +22% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 40 | 76¢ → 81¢ | $32 | +$2 +6.9% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Ends in 254d | Yes | 120 | 25¢ → 26¢ | $31 | +$1 +2.0% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 8d | Yes | 115 | 62¢ → 27¢ | $30 | −$40 −57% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Ends in 41d | Yes | 136 | 48¢ → 22¢ | $29 | −$36 −55% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 280 | 18¢ → 10¢ | $27 | −$25 −48% |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 80 | 36¢ → 33¢ | $26 | −$3 −11% |
| Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 815 | 22¢ → 3¢ | $26 | −$149 −85% |
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 185 | 46¢ → 14¢ | $26 | −$58 −69% |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Ends in 101d | Yes | 1,044 | 45¢ → 2¢ | $23 | −$441 −95% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 642 | 23¢ → 4¢ | $23 | −$122 −84% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 151 | 15¢ → 16¢ | $23 | +$1 +2.4% |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 205 | 27¢ → 11¢ | $22 | −$33 −61% |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 80 | 28¢ → 26¢ | $20 | −$2 −8.1% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 50 | 42¢ → 38¢ | $19 | −$2 −10% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 50 | 35¢ → 38¢ | $19 | +$1 +8.4% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Ends in 254d | No | 20 | 91¢ → 92¢ | $18 | +$0 +1.1% |
| Revolut IPO before 2027?Ends in 73d | No | 19 | 93¢ → 96¢ | $18 | +$1 +3.2% |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 60 | 76¢ → 30¢ | $18 | −$28 −61% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 750d | No | 20 | 87¢ → 87¢ | $17 | +$0 +0.1% |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 60 | 27¢ → 27¢ | $16 | −$0 −1.9% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 51 | 50¢ → 31¢ | $16 | −$10 −39% |
| Will Antonio Zanardi Landi be the next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 177 | 2¢ → 9¢ | $15 | +$12 +312% |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 16d | No | 227 | 27¢ → 7¢ | $15 | −$46 −76% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 11d | No | 106 | 26¢ → 14¢ | $14 | −$14 −49% |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 181d | Yes | 130 | 12¢ → 11¢ | $14 | −$2 −13% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 40 | 38¢ → 34¢ | $13 | −$2 −12% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 240 | 9¢ → 6¢ | $13 | −$7 −36% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Ends in 72d | Yes | 773 | 18¢ → 2¢ | $13 | −$123 −91% |
| Will Democrats win young men in the midterms?Ends in 18d | No | 85 | 19¢ → 14¢ | $12 | −$4 −23% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 117 | 18¢ → 11¢ | $12 | −$9 −43% |
| Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 750d | Yes | 8,060 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $12 | −$47 −79% |
| Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?Ends in 230d | Yes | 183 | 3¢ → 7¢ | $12 | +$7 +147% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 8d | No | 43 | 64¢ → 27¢ | $12 | −$16 −58% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 70 | 59¢ → 16¢ | $11 | −$30 −74% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 80 | 15¢ → 13¢ | $11 | −$1 −10.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 110 | 13¢ → 9¢ | $9 | −$5 −35% |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 125 | 18¢ → 7¢ | $8 | −$14 −63% |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 16d | Yes | 120 | 36¢ → 7¢ | $8 | −$35 −82% |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 95 | 12¢ → 8¢ | $8 | −$4 −32% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 20 | 43¢ → 39¢ | $8 | −$1 −10% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 59d | No | 27 | 38¢ → 28¢ | $8 | −$3 −26% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 60 | 34¢ → 13¢ | $8 | −$13 −63% |
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 200 | 11¢ → 4¢ | $7 | −$14 −65% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 30 | 28¢ → 22¢ | $6 | −$2 −23% |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 20 | 28¢ → 31¢ | $6 | +$1 +8.9% |
| Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 5 | 91¢ → 89¢ | $4 | −$0 −2.7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 195 | 4¢ → 2¢ | $4 | −$4 −46% |
| Will Republicans win young men in the midterms?Ends in 18d | Yes | 30 | 17¢ → 13¢ | $4 | −$1 −23% |
| Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?Ends in 230d | No | 28 | 10¢ → 13¢ | $4 | +$1 +35% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Ends in 104d | Yes | 88 | 9¢ → 4¢ | $4 | −$5 −56% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 30 | 44¢ → 12¢ | $3 | −$10 −74% |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 30 | 36¢ → 12¢ | $3 | −$7 −68% |
