| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 46d | No | 10 | 85¢ → >99¢ | $10 | +$1 +17% |
| Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?Ends ended | No | 10 | 95¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$0 +3.6% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 91¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$1 +7.9% |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$4 +60% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 56¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$4 +74% |
| Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 96¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$0 +1.8% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$0 +2.7% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 71¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$3 +37% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 75¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$2 +28% |
| Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$1 +13% |
| Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 434d | No | 10 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $10 | +$0 +4.2% |
| Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Ends in 158d | No | 10 | 94¢ → 95¢ | $10 | +$0 +1.6% |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $10 | +$0 +5.5% |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 89¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$1 +6.2% |
| Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 84¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$1 +12% |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Ends in 5h | No | 10 | 43¢ → 93¢ | $9 | +$5 +118% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?Ends in 434d | No | 10 | 87¢ → 92¢ | $9 | +$1 +5.7% |
| Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?Ends in 36d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 90¢ | $9 | +$3 +47% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 9 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$0 +3.9% |
| Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 366d | No | 10 | 81¢ → 90¢ | $9 | +$1 +10% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 434d | No | 10 | 95¢ → 90¢ | $9 | −$1 −5.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 9 | 72¢ → 98¢ | $9 | +$2 +36% |
| France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 89¢ | $9 | +$0 +1.1% |
| Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 75¢ → 89¢ | $9 | +$1 +19% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 71¢ → 89¢ | $9 | +$2 +25% |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 3d | No | 10 | 60¢ → 87¢ | $9 | +$3 +45% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 87¢ | $9 | +$1 +13% |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 87¢ | $9 | +$2 +24% |
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 3d | No | 10 | 53¢ → 86¢ | $9 | +$3 +61% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 525d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$1 +20% |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Ends ended | No | 9 | 85¢ → 94¢ | $8 | +$1 +11% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 9 | 74¢ → 90¢ | $8 | +$1 +20% |
| Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 9 | 69¢ → 96¢ | $8 | +$2 +38% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?Ends in 11d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 82¢ | $8 | +$1 +10% |
| Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?Ends in 47d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 81¢ | $8 | +$1 +16% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 434d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 80¢ | $8 | +$1 +12% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 57¢ → 79¢ | $8 | +$2 +39% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 75¢ → 78¢ | $8 | +$0 +4.0% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 9 | 76¢ → 90¢ | $8 | +$1 +18% |
| Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 62¢ → 78¢ | $8 | +$2 +26% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 69¢ → 78¢ | $8 | +$1 +12% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Ends in 1165d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 77¢ | $8 | +$0 +4.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 10 | 83¢ → 77¢ | $8 | −$1 −7.8% |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 10 | 71¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$0 +6.3% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 75¢ | $7 | +$2 +38% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 74¢ | $7 | +$4 +131% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 9 | 66¢ → 84¢ | $7 | +$2 +28% |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Ends ended | Yes | 10 | 80¢ → 73¢ | $7 | −$1 −8.2% |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 66¢ → 72¢ | $7 | +$1 +9.1% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 1d | Yes | 10 | 67¢ → 72¢ | $7 | +$0 +6.7% |
| Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 82¢ → 71¢ | $7 | −$1 −13% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?Ends in 100d | No | 10 | 79¢ → 71¢ | $7 | −$1 −11% |
| Will the Student List win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 66¢ → 71¢ | $7 | +$0 +6.8% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 68¢ → 68¢ | $7 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 55¢ → 68¢ | $7 | +$1 +24% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 12¢ → 69¢ | $7 | +$6 +486% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 10 | 52¢ → 68¢ | $7 | +$2 +30% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 68¢ | $7 | +$4 +111% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 11 | 62¢ → 64¢ | $7 | +$0 +1.7% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 66¢ | $7 | +$1 +12% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Ends in 8d | Yes | 9 | 36¢ → 78¢ | $7 | +$3 +113% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 8 | 77¢ → 82¢ | $7 | +$0 +5.8% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 65¢ | $7 | −$1 −11% |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 10 | 29¢ → 65¢ | $6 | +$4 +122% |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 64¢ | $6 | +$1 +9.3% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 48¢ → 64¢ | $6 | +$2 +32% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 35¢ → 64¢ | $6 | +$3 +81% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 8 | 11¢ → 79¢ | $6 | +$5 +614% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?Ends in 8d | No | 10 | 84¢ → 62¢ | $6 | −$2 −27% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 33¢ → 62¢ | $6 | +$3 +86% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | No | 8 | 66¢ → 72¢ | $6 | +$0 +8.9% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d | No | 6 | 72¢ → 98¢ | $6 | +$2 +36% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Ends in 16d | Yes | 10 | 61¢ → 58¢ | $6 | −$0 −4.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 46¢ → 57¢ | $6 | +$1 +25% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 100d | No | 10 | 42¢ → 56¢ | $6 | +$1 +33% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 69d | No | 7 | 67¢ → 79¢ | $6 | +$1 +17% |
| Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 7 | 61¢ → 74¢ | $5 | +$1 +22% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?Ends in 11d | No | 10 | 52¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$0 +3.8% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 46¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$1 +16% |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 366d | No | 10 | 62¢ → 54¢ | $5 | −$1 −14% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?Ends in 84d | No | 10 | 34¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$2 +57% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 6 | 75¢ → 93¢ | $5 | +$1 +24% |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 51¢ | $5 | −$1 −17% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | Yes | 10 | 23¢ → 50¢ | $5 | +$3 +117% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | No | 10 | 58¢ → 50¢ | $5 | −$1 −15% |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by...?Ends in 69d | No | 7 | 69¢ → 75¢ | $5 | +$0 +8.4% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | Yes | 5 | 15¢ → 97¢ | $5 | +$4 +549% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | No | 10 | 46¢ → 48¢ | $5 | +$0 +4.4% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 10 | 40¢ → 48¢ | $5 | +$1 +20% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 5 | 80¢ → 96¢ | $5 | +$1 +19% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 6 | 87¢ → 77¢ | $5 | −$1 −12% |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 46d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 47¢ | $5 | −$1 −23% |
| Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?Ends in 11d | No | 10 | 46¢ → 47¢ | $5 | +$0 +1.1% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 38d | No | 10 | 63¢ → 47¢ | $5 | −$2 −26% |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 10 | 47¢ → 44¢ | $4 | −$0 −6.4% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 5 | 81¢ → 86¢ | $4 | +$0 +6.4% |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 10 | 41¢ → 42¢ | $4 | +$0 +1.2% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 37¢ → 41¢ | $4 | +$0 +9.5% |
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?Ends in 78d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 39¢ | $4 | −$3 −44% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 23d | No | 9 | 47¢ → 44¢ | $4 | −$0 −7.4% |
