| Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?Ends in 35d | No | 20 | 61¢ → 84¢ | $17 | +$5 +37% |
| Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 75¢ → >99¢ | $10 | +$2 +33% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 3h | Yes | 10 | 86¢ → >99¢ | $10 | +$1 +16% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 3h | No | 10 | 70¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$3 +42% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 45d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$1 +16% |
| Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?Ends ended | No | 10 | 93¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$1 +6.5% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$3 +37% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$0 +3.8% |
| Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 95¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$0 +2.3% |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 90¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$1 +7.0% |
| Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 84¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$1 +15% |
| Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Ends in 157d | No | 10 | 94¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$0 +2.8% |
| France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$1 +8.9% |
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 51¢ → 95¢ | $10 | +$4 +87% |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 89¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$1 +6.6% |
| Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 91¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$0 +2.9% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 68¢ → 93¢ | $9 | +$2 +36% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 43¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$5 +112% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 44¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$5 +107% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 95¢ → 91¢ | $9 | −$0 −4.4% |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Ends ended | No | 10 | 41¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$5 +124% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$3 +48% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 71d | No | 10 | 92¢ → 90¢ | $9 | −$0 −2.7% |
| Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 365d | No | 10 | 81¢ → 88¢ | $9 | +$1 +8.4% |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 88¢ | $9 | +$2 +25% |
| Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?Ends in 46d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 87¢ | $9 | +$2 +25% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 87¢ | $9 | +$1 +17% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 65¢ → 86¢ | $9 | +$2 +32% |
| SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 10 | 58¢ → 85¢ | $9 | +$3 +47% |
| Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?Ends in 5d | No | 10 | 89¢ → 84¢ | $8 | −$1 −5.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 69¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$2 +22% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 63¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$2 +33% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 72d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 83¢ | $8 | +$1 +7.8% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 10 | 83¢ → 83¢ | $8 | −$0 −0.6% |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by...?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 67¢ → 82¢ | $8 | +$1 +22% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 82¢ | $8 | +$0 +5.6% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 46¢ → 82¢ | $8 | +$4 +77% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 10 | 11¢ → 81¢ | $8 | +$7 +636% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 81¢ | $8 | −$0 −4.9% |
| Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 52¢ → 80¢ | $8 | +$3 +53% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 9 | 77¢ → 92¢ | $8 | +$1 +19% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?Ends in 99d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 77¢ | $8 | +$1 +6.9% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Ends in 1164d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 77¢ | $8 | +$0 +3.4% |
| Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | Yes | 10 | 78¢ → 77¢ | $8 | −$0 −1.9% |
| Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 82¢ → 75¢ | $8 | −$1 −8.2% |
| Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 52¢ → 75¢ | $8 | +$2 +44% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?Ends in 5d | No | 10 | 33¢ → 73¢ | $7 | +$4 +121% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 3d | No | 10 | 66¢ → 73¢ | $7 | +$1 +9.8% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 35¢ → 73¢ | $7 | +$4 +107% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 82¢ → 71¢ | $7 | −$1 −14% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 19¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$5 +261% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 70¢ | $7 | −$0 −5.4% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 3h | Yes | 10 | 67¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$0 +3.7% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 57¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$1 +22% |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 3h | No | 10 | 66¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$0 +5.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 10 | 52¢ → 68¢ | $7 | +$2 +30% |
| Will any contestant beat Luke Littler?Ends in 6d | Yes | 10 | 41¢ → 67¢ | $7 | +$3 +63% |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 67¢ → 66¢ | $7 | −$0 −2.2% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 65¢ | $7 | +$3 +103% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 67¢ → 65¢ | $6 | −$0 −3.7% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 10 | 71¢ → 65¢ | $6 | −$1 −9.2% |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 30¢ → 64¢ | $6 | +$3 +113% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 46¢ → 64¢ | $6 | +$2 +38% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 67d | No | 10 | 46¢ → 61¢ | $6 | +$2 +33% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Ends in 29d | No | 10 | 56¢ → 61¢ | $6 | +$0 +8.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 66¢ → 60¢ | $6 | −$1 −9.1% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 60¢ | $6 | +$0 +1.7% |
| Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 365d | Yes | 10 | 45¢ → 60¢ | $6 | +$2 +33% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 69¢ → 60¢ | $6 | −$1 −14% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 60¢ | $6 | −$1 −18% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 68¢ → 60¢ | $6 | −$1 −13% |
| Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 43¢ → 60¢ | $6 | +$2 +38% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 83¢ → 58¢ | $6 | −$3 −30% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 99d | No | 10 | 42¢ → 57¢ | $6 | +$2 +37% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?Ends in 83d | No | 10 | 34¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$2 +59% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 52¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$0 +3.8% |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 365d | No | 10 | 56¢ → 54¢ | $5 | −$0 −4.5% |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 55¢ → 54¢ | $5 | −$0 −2.7% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 524d | No | 6 | 70¢ → 85¢ | $5 | +$1 +21% |
| Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 14¢ → 51¢ | $5 | +$4 +256% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 67d | No | 10 | 43¢ → 51¢ | $5 | +$1 +17% |
| Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Ends ended | No | 7 | 85¢ → 72¢ | $5 | −$1 −16% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 3d | No | 10 | 49¢ → 49¢ | $5 | −$0 −0.9% |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 2d | No | 5 | 60¢ → 97¢ | $5 | +$2 +62% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 1d | No | 7 | 71¢ → 66¢ | $5 | −$0 −7.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 36d | Yes | 10 | 49¢ → 47¢ | $5 | −$0 −4.1% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 6d | No | 5 | 75¢ → 94¢ | $5 | +$1 +25% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 10 | 40¢ → 46¢ | $5 | +$1 +14% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 10 | 68¢ → 46¢ | $5 | −$2 −33% |
| Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 47¢ → 45¢ | $5 | −$0 −4.3% |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 10 | 10¢ → 44¢ | $4 | +$3 +340% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?Ends in 67d | No | 5 | 79¢ → 87¢ | $4 | +$0 +10% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 22d | No | 10 | 40¢ → 44¢ | $4 | +$0 +8.8% |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by December 31?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 43¢ → 42¢ | $4 | −$0 −3.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Ends in 158d | No | 10 | 25¢ → 42¢ | $4 | +$2 +66% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 23¢ → 41¢ | $4 | +$2 +76% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 67d | Yes | 10 | 26¢ → 41¢ | $4 | +$1 +56% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 7¢ → 39¢ | $4 | +$3 +495% |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 30¢ → 39¢ | $4 | +$1 +30% |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?Ends in 10d | Yes | 10 | 39¢ → 38¢ | $4 | −$0 −2.6% |
