| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?Ends in 434d | No | 459 | 77¢ → 75¢ | $344 | −$9 −2.6% |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | No | 312 | 93¢ → 94¢ | $292 | +$2 +0.5% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | No | 312 | 94¢ → 91¢ | $282 | −$11 −3.7% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 37d | No | 398 | 61¢ → 65¢ | $257 | +$14 +5.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 234 | 91¢ → >99¢ | $233 | +$20 +9.4% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 234 | 84¢ → 98¢ | $228 | +$32 +16% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | No | 312 | 54¢ → 68¢ | $211 | +$42 +25% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 188 | 81¢ → 84¢ | $157 | +$5 +3.2% |
| Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?Ends ended | Yes | 156 | 94¢ → 96¢ | $150 | +$4 +2.6% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 188 | 86¢ → 80¢ | $149 | −$12 −7.6% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 156 | 92¢ → 95¢ | $148 | +$5 +3.3% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | Yes | 156 | 61¢ → 94¢ | $146 | +$51 +54% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 250 | 46¢ → 52¢ | $129 | +$15 +14% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 68d | Yes | 312 | 69¢ → 41¢ | $126 | −$87 −41% |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 125 | 20¢ → 100¢ | $125 | +$99 +389% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 155 | 77¢ → 79¢ | $122 | +$3 +2.2% |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 3d | No | 120 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $118 | +$4 +3.7% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 125 | 84¢ → 94¢ | $117 | +$12 +11% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 121 | 79¢ → 94¢ | $114 | +$18 +18% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 123 | 83¢ → 92¢ | $113 | +$10 +9.7% |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 3d | No | 120 | 96¢ → 93¢ | $112 | −$3 −3.0% |
| Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?Ends in 234d | Yes | 124 | 86¢ → 89¢ | $110 | +$3 +2.9% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 4d | No | 156 | 53¢ → 70¢ | $108 | +$26 +31% |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 147 | 66¢ → 72¢ | $106 | +$8 +8.3% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 11d | Yes | 156 | 51¢ → 68¢ | $105 | +$26 +33% |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 117 | 76¢ → 87¢ | $102 | +$13 +14% |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 124 | 51¢ → 75¢ | $92 | +$29 +46% |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Ends ended | Yes | 117 | 56¢ → 79¢ | $92 | +$27 +41% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 125 | 75¢ → 74¢ | $92 | −$2 −2.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 468 | 57¢ → 20¢ | $91 | −$176 −66% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 125 | 69¢ → 72¢ | $89 | +$3 +3.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 146 | 31¢ → 60¢ | $87 | +$42 +92% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 125 | 61¢ → 69¢ | $86 | +$9 +12% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 177d | No | 155 | 52¢ → 54¢ | $83 | +$2 +3.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 19h | Yes | 84 | 93¢ → 99¢ | $83 | +$5 +6.3% |
| Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Ends in 434d | No | 124 | 72¢ → 66¢ | $81 | −$8 −8.8% |
| Will Erling Haaland (Man City) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?Ends in 234d | Yes | 124 | 57¢ → 66¢ | $81 | +$11 +15% |
| Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?Ends in 1165d | Yes | 124 | 53¢ → 64¢ | $79 | +$12 +19% |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 250d | Yes | 93 | 80¢ → 84¢ | $78 | +$3 +4.4% |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 78 | 76¢ → 99¢ | $77 | +$18 +30% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 6d | Yes | 78 | 51¢ → 99¢ | $77 | +$37 +93% |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 85 | 84¢ → 89¢ | $76 | +$4 +6.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Ends in 2d | No | 77 | 92¢ → 93¢ | $72 | +$1 +1.3% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | Yes | 85 | 72¢ → 77¢ | $65 | +$4 +5.8% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 68 | 58¢ → 95¢ | $64 | +$25 +64% |
| Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Ends in 15d | Yes | 153 | 56¢ → 41¢ | $63 | −$23 −27% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 75 | 42¢ → 80¢ | $60 | +$28 +90% |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again?Ends in 27d | No | 62 | 90¢ → 97¢ | $60 | +$4 +7.4% |
| Will Michael Olise finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 69d | Yes | 62 | 87¢ → 96¢ | $59 | +$5 +9.9% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 62 | 81¢ → 96¢ | $59 | +$9 +18% |
| Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 62 | 75¢ → 95¢ | $59 | +$12 +26% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Ends in 7d | No | 62 | 53¢ → 95¢ | $59 | +$26 +78% |
| Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 69d | No | 62 | 73¢ → 93¢ | $57 | +$12 +27% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | Yes | 110 | 41¢ → 52¢ | $57 | +$12 +27% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 70 | 80¢ → 81¢ | $56 | +$1 +1.0% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 87 | 56¢ → 63¢ | $54 | +$6 +12% |
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?Ends in 250d | No | 62 | 73¢ → 87¢ | $54 | +$8 +18% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 62 | 78¢ → 84¢ | $52 | +$4 +7.7% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 2d | No | 78 | 73¢ → 66¢ | $51 | −$5 −9.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d | No | 52 | 92¢ → 97¢ | $50 | +$2 +5.1% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 62 | 74¢ → 78¢ | $48 | +$2 +4.7% |
| Will Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?Ends in 234d | No | 93 | 61¢ → 52¢ | $48 | −$9 −16% |
| Will Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?Ends in 234d | Yes | 93 | 76¢ → 49¢ | $45 | −$26 −36% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 78 | 62¢ → 57¢ | $44 | −$4 −8.1% |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 46 | 56¢ → 97¢ | $44 | +$19 +73% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 100 | 52¢ → 44¢ | $44 | −$8 −15% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 37d | Yes | 122 | 40¢ → 36¢ | $43 | −$5 −11% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 125 | 41¢ → 35¢ | $43 | −$8 −16% |
| Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 77 | 55¢ → 56¢ | $43 | +$1 +1.2% |
| Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?Ends in 100d | Yes | 90 | 71¢ → 46¢ | $42 | −$22 −35% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 61 | 59¢ → 68¢ | $41 | +$5 +15% |
| Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?Ends in 100d | Yes | 106 | 26¢ → 37¢ | $39 | +$11 +40% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 5d | Yes | 44 | 86¢ → 86¢ | $38 | −$0 −0.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 312 | 14¢ → 12¢ | $36 | −$8 −19% |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 117 | 79¢ → 29¢ | $34 | −$58 −63% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Ends in 11d | No | 62 | 55¢ → 53¢ | $33 | −$1 −3.6% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 8d | No | 30 | 79¢ → 97¢ | $29 | +$5 +22% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 33 | 63¢ → 87¢ | $28 | +$8 +37% |
| Will Petr Hlaváček be the next Mayor of Prague?Ends ended | Yes | 30 | 93¢ → 94¢ | $28 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Will AP call US House control by November 4, 11:59 PM?Ends in 12d | Yes | 31 | 84¢ → 88¢ | $27 | +$1 +4.8% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 78 | 44¢ → 33¢ | $25 | −$9 −26% |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Ends in 69d | No | 27 | 36¢ → 92¢ | $25 | +$15 +154% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 69d | Yes | 78 | 31¢ → 31¢ | $24 | −$0 −1.6% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 746d | Yes | 155 | 21¢ → 15¢ | $24 | −$9 −27% |
| Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Ends in 250d | No | 28 | 65¢ → 84¢ | $23 | +$5 +28% |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 69d | No | 37 | 70¢ → 63¢ | $23 | −$3 −11% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 4d | Yes | 82 | 31¢ → 28¢ | $23 | −$3 −10% |
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?Ends in 342d | No | 30 | 68¢ → 74¢ | $22 | +$2 +8.8% |
| Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?Ends in 11d | Yes | 32 | 74¢ → 69¢ | $22 | −$2 −7.5% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Ends in 218d | Yes | 124 | 13¢ → 18¢ | $22 | +$5 +33% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 23d | No | 48 | 42¢ → 45¢ | $21 | +$1 +6.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 125 | 16¢ → 17¢ | $21 | +$1 +3.1% |
| Will Patri Guijarro finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Ends in 69d | Yes | 21 | 87¢ → 88¢ | $19 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 21 | 86¢ → 89¢ | $19 | +$1 +2.9% |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Ends in 434d | Yes | 19 | 87¢ → 90¢ | $17 | +$0 +2.9% |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 19h | Yes | 76 | 37¢ → 22¢ | $17 | −$11 −41% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Ends in 239d | Yes | 124 | 14¢ → 14¢ | $17 | −$1 −3.6% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 63 | 26¢ → 27¢ | $17 | +$1 +3.5% |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Ends in 69d | No | 62 | 33¢ → 27¢ | $16 | −$4 −19% |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Erling Haaland or Jude Bellingham to finish higher?Ends in 69d | Haaland | 20 | 70¢ → 82¢ | $16 | +$2 +16% |
