| Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 74¢ → >99¢ | $10 | +$3 +35% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 5h | No | 10 | 70¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$3 +42% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 45d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$1 +17% |
| Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 87¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$1 +13% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$3 +37% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$0 +3.3% |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 90¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$1 +7.6% |
| Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 83¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$1 +15% |
| Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 91¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$0 +5.4% |
| Will Rafael Marín Mollinedo win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?Ends in 225d | No | 10 | 86¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$1 +12% |
| France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$1 +7.4% |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$1 +6.7% |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Ends ended | No | 10 | 39¢ → 93¢ | $9 | +$5 +138% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 92¢ | $9 | +$3 +50% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 50¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$4 +82% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 95¢ → 91¢ | $9 | −$0 −4.3% |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 89¢ | $9 | +$3 +64% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 1d | Yes | 10 | 85¢ → 88¢ | $9 | +$0 +2.9% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 68¢ → 87¢ | $9 | +$2 +27% |
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 53¢ → 86¢ | $9 | +$3 +62% |
| Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?Ends in 46d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 86¢ | $9 | +$2 +23% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 524d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 85¢ | $8 | +$1 +21% |
| SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 85¢ | $8 | +$3 +43% |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 79¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$0 +6.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 10 | 85¢ → 84¢ | $8 | −$0 −1.2% |
| Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 83¢ | $8 | −$0 −1.7% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 72d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 83¢ | $8 | +$1 +7.8% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 82¢ | $8 | −$0 −3.1% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 75¢ → 82¢ | $8 | +$1 +9.3% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 24¢ → 82¢ | $8 | +$6 +242% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 47¢ → 82¢ | $8 | +$3 +73% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 10 | 12¢ → 81¢ | $8 | +$7 +575% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 45d | No | 10 | 48¢ → 80¢ | $8 | +$3 +66% |
| Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 80¢ | $8 | +$1 +10% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 76¢ → 78¢ | $8 | +$0 +2.0% |
| Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 36d | Yes | 10 | 77¢ → 77¢ | $8 | $0 0.0% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 48¢ → 77¢ | $8 | +$3 +59% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$2 +40% |
| Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 37¢ → 75¢ | $8 | +$4 +103% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?Ends in 5d | No | 10 | 37¢ → 74¢ | $7 | +$4 +100% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 3d | No | 10 | 72¢ → 73¢ | $7 | +$0 +0.7% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 12¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$6 +495% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 5h | Yes | 10 | 67¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$0 +4.5% |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 5h | No | 10 | 66¢ → 70¢ | $7 | +$0 +6.1% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 70¢ | $7 | −$0 −6.1% |
| Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 67d | No | 10 | 46¢ → 69¢ | $7 | +$2 +49% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 68¢ | $7 | −$0 −2.9% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 10 | 52¢ → 68¢ | $7 | +$2 +30% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 67¢ | $7 | +$4 +109% |
| Will any contestant beat Luke Littler?Ends in 6d | Yes | 10 | 36¢ → 67¢ | $7 | +$3 +86% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 39¢ → 67¢ | $7 | +$3 +72% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 65¢ | $6 | +$1 +9.3% |
| Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 31¢ → 64¢ | $6 | +$3 +106% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 64¢ | $6 | −$1 −13% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 56¢ → 64¢ | $6 | +$1 +13% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 60¢ → 63¢ | $6 | +$0 +4.2% |
| Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 365d | Yes | 10 | 45¢ → 62¢ | $6 | +$2 +38% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 6 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $6 | +$0 +4.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 67d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 60¢ | $6 | +$3 +87% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 60¢ | $6 | −$1 −18% |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Ends in 94d | Yes | 10 | 46¢ → 59¢ | $6 | +$1 +28% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 75¢ → 59¢ | $6 | −$2 −22% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 83¢ → 56¢ | $6 | −$3 −32% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 6d | No | 6 | 75¢ → 95¢ | $6 | +$1 +27% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 99d | Yes | 10 | 64¢ → 55¢ | $6 | −$1 −14% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?Ends in 83d | No | 10 | 34¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$2 +59% |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 365d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 53¢ | $5 | −$0 −1.9% |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 55¢ → 53¢ | $5 | −$0 −3.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Ends in 219d | Yes | 10 | 52¢ → 52¢ | $5 | −$0 −1.0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 67d | No | 10 | 46¢ → 51¢ | $5 | +$0 +9.8% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?Ends ended | No | 10 | 81¢ → 50¢ | $5 | −$3 −38% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 3d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 48¢ | $5 | −$1 −11% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 36d | Yes | 10 | 48¢ → 48¢ | $5 | −$0 −1.0% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 16¢ → 47¢ | $5 | +$3 +194% |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 46¢ | $5 | −$2 −35% |
| Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 47¢ → 45¢ | $5 | −$0 −4.3% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 57¢ → 45¢ | $4 | −$1 −22% |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 64¢ → 44¢ | $4 | −$2 −31% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 22d | No | 10 | 40¢ → 44¢ | $4 | +$0 +10% |
| Will Pedro Pascal be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Ends in 88d | No | 5 | 84¢ → 84¢ | $4 | −$0 −0.0% |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by December 31?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 41¢ → 42¢ | $4 | +$0 +1.2% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 25¢ → 42¢ | $4 | +$2 +66% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 22¢ → 42¢ | $4 | +$2 +89% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Ends in 29d | No | 7 | 55¢ → 63¢ | $4 | +$0 +14% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 4 | 70¢ → 92¢ | $4 | +$1 +31% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 12¢ → 39¢ | $4 | +$3 +228% |
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?Ends in 77d | No | 10 | 47¢ → 39¢ | $4 | −$1 −18% |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 50¢ → 38¢ | $4 | −$1 −25% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 45¢ → 38¢ | $4 | −$1 −17% |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 31¢ → 38¢ | $4 | +$1 +23% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 10 | 33¢ → 36¢ | $4 | +$0 +9.1% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Ends in 10d | Yes | 10 | 34¢ → 36¢ | $4 | +$0 +5.9% |
| Will the Democrats win Collin County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 9d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 36¢ | $4 | +$0 +11% |
| Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 34¢ → 36¢ | $4 | +$0 +4.4% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 67d | Yes | 9 | 35¢ → 41¢ | $4 | +$0 +16% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 29¢ → 35¢ | $3 | +$1 +19% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 6d | Yes | 10 | 14¢ → 34¢ | $3 | +$2 +143% |
| Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?Ends in 7d | Yes | 6 | 43¢ → 60¢ | $3 | +$1 +38% |
| Will the Student List win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 5h | Yes | 10 | 29¢ → 33¢ | $3 | +$0 +14% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Ends in 3d | No | 9 | 49¢ → 37¢ | $3 | −$1 −24% |
