| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 87¢ → >99¢ | $10 | +$1 +14% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 11h | No | 10 | 70¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$3 +42% |
| Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 87¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$1 +13% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 5d | No | 10 | 64¢ → 99¢ | $10 | +$3 +54% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Ends ended | No | 10 | 87¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$1 +13% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Ends in 67d | No | 10 | 79¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$2 +24% |
| Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Ends ended | No | 10 | 83¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$1 +18% |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$4 +60% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $10 | +$0 +3.6% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?Ends in 67d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$1 +10% |
| Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Ends in 157d | No | 10 | 87¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$1 +9.9% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 96¢ | $10 | +$2 +30% |
| Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 92¢ → 95¢ | $10 | +$0 +4.2% |
| Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Ends in 157d | No | 10 | 94¢ → 95¢ | $10 | +$0 +1.7% |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$0 +5.0% |
| US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$1 +7.4% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$2 +23% |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 60¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$3 +58% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 76¢ → 95¢ | $9 | +$2 +24% |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 90¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$0 +4.6% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 95¢ → 94¢ | $9 | −$0 −1.2% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 86¢ → 93¢ | $9 | +$1 +8.9% |
| France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 88¢ → 92¢ | $9 | +$0 +4.0% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 76¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$1 +19% |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 89¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$0 +1.7% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 33¢ → 90¢ | $9 | +$6 +171% |
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Ends in 2d | No | 10 | 50¢ → 89¢ | $9 | +$4 +78% |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 70¢ → 88¢ | $9 | +$2 +25% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 1d | Yes | 10 | 85¢ → 88¢ | $9 | +$0 +2.9% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?Ends in 67d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 87¢ | $9 | +$1 +13% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 9 | 65¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$3 +44% |
| Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?Ends in 35d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 85¢ | $9 | +$2 +40% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$2 +38% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 524d | No | 10 | 71¢ → 84¢ | $8 | +$1 +18% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 84¢ | $8 | −$0 −1.1% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 745d | No | 10 | 80¢ → 83¢ | $8 | +$0 +3.9% |
| Will Solana dip to $100 in October?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 89¢ → 83¢ | $8 | −$1 −7.3% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 83¢ | $8 | +$1 +13% |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 85¢ → 81¢ | $8 | −$0 −4.0% |
| Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?Ends in 46d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 81¢ | $8 | +$1 +12% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | No | 10 | 9¢ → 81¢ | $8 | +$7 +853% |
| Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 65¢ → 81¢ | $8 | +$2 +24% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 10 | 83¢ → 81¢ | $8 | −$0 −3.0% |
| Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 62¢ → 80¢ | $8 | +$2 +28% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 45d | No | 10 | 48¢ → 79¢ | $8 | +$3 +65% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026?Ends in 5d | No | 10 | 38¢ → 79¢ | $8 | +$4 +107% |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Ends in 433d | No | 10 | 77¢ → 77¢ | $8 | −$0 −0.1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Ends in 7d | Yes | 10 | 34¢ → 77¢ | $8 | +$4 +126% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Ends in 1164d | No | 10 | 74¢ → 77¢ | $8 | +$0 +3.4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?Ends ended | Yes | 9 | 37¢ → 87¢ | $8 | +$4 +134% |
| Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Ends in 36d | Yes | 10 | 77¢ → 76¢ | $8 | −$0 −1.3% |
| Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 76¢ | $8 | +$2 +41% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?Ends in 99d | No | 10 | 80¢ → 74¢ | $7 | −$1 −7.5% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 44¢ → 74¢ | $7 | +$3 +67% |
| Will the Bank of Korea hold at the November 2026 meeting?Ends in 32d | No | 10 | 58¢ → 74¢ | $7 | +$2 +27% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 8 | 78¢ → 91¢ | $7 | +$1 +17% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 10 | 36¢ → 73¢ | $7 | +$4 +103% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 3d | No | 10 | 66¢ → 73¢ | $7 | +$1 +9.8% |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by...?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 65¢ → 76¢ | $7 | +$1 +16% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 11h | Yes | 10 | 67¢ → 72¢ | $7 | +$1 +7.5% |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 7 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $7 | +$0 +0.5% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 7 | 25¢ → 98¢ | $7 | +$5 +294% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 33¢ → 71¢ | $7 | +$4 +115% |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 0%-3%?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 71¢ → 70¢ | $7 | −$0 −2.1% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 57¢ → 69¢ | $7 | +$1 +21% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 6d | No | 7 | 92¢ → 95¢ | $7 | +$0 +3.0% |
| Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 82¢ → 68¢ | $7 | −$1 −17% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 68¢ → 68¢ | $7 | $0 0.0% |
| Will the Student List win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 11h | No | 10 | 66¢ → 68¢ | $7 | +$0 +3.0% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 10 | 52¢ → 68¢ | $7 | +$2 +30% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 57¢ → 68¢ | $7 | +$1 +18% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 43¢ → 68¢ | $7 | +$2 +57% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Ends in 37d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 67¢ | $7 | +$3 +108% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 66¢ | $7 | +$1 +11% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Ends in 158d | No | 10 | 45¢ → 65¢ | $7 | +$2 +44% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 6d | Yes | 7 | 81¢ → 89¢ | $6 | +$1 +9.7% |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 10 | 29¢ → 64¢ | $6 | +$4 +121% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Ends in 249d | No | 10 | 73¢ → 64¢ | $6 | −$1 −12% |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Ends ended | No | 7 | 49¢ → 93¢ | $6 | +$3 +90% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 53¢ → 63¢ | $6 | +$1 +18% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 83¢ → 62¢ | $6 | −$2 −26% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 1d | No | 10 | 61¢ → 62¢ | $6 | +$0 +0.8% |
| Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 365d | Yes | 10 | 45¢ → 62¢ | $6 | +$2 +37% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 67d | No | 10 | 32¢ → 61¢ | $6 | +$3 +91% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 62¢ → 61¢ | $6 | −$0 −2.4% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Ends in 15d | Yes | 10 | 61¢ → 60¢ | $6 | −$0 −1.6% |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 66¢ → 59¢ | $6 | −$1 −9.7% |
| Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?Ends ended | No | 6 | 93¢ → 99¢ | $6 | +$0 +6.5% |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 11h | No | 8 | 67¢ → 73¢ | $6 | +$0 +8.6% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?Ends in 83d | No | 10 | 34¢ → 55¢ | $5 | +$2 +60% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?Ends in 10d | No | 10 | 52¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$0 +3.8% |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 365d | No | 10 | 53¢ → 54¢ | $5 | +$0 +0.9% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 99d | No | 10 | 59¢ → 54¢ | $5 | −$1 −9.3% |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 54¢ → 53¢ | $5 | −$0 −1.9% |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 10d | No | 9 | 54¢ → 57¢ | $5 | +$0 +6.5% |
| Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?Ends in 7d | No | 10 | 14¢ → 51¢ | $5 | +$4 +253% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Ends in 1d | No | 7 | 54¢ → 75¢ | $5 | +$1 +39% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 67d | No | 10 | 45¢ → 51¢ | $5 | +$1 +12% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 10 | 22¢ → 50¢ | $5 | +$3 +125% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 5 | 80¢ → 98¢ | $5 | +$1 +22% |
